Divisional Picks

No fluff from me this week. Strictly business. Time to kill the haters and take care of my passengers.

Let’s get cash stacks.

Colts @ Chiefs -5

Everybody else getting off the Chiefs’ bandwagon = time for us to get on the Chiefs’ bandwagon.

After last week’s collapse, I’m reverting back to Money Train core principles. This is opportunity number one for us to fade public action on a road underdog. Andy Reid and this Kansas City team have obviously had their issues in the playoffs. And on top of that, the Chiefs have an all time 0-4 record against the Colts in postseason play. No doubt as soon as the this matchup was announced, KC fans’ PTSD flared up as flashbacks of Andrew Luck leading his team back from a 28 point deficient in 2013 danced in their heads. But the Chiefs have something now that they didn’t have then, and honestly have never had under Andy Reid. A superstar, generational-type quarterback. And that’s exactly the kind of piece that breaks hexes.

The Colts run a Cover Two zone as their base defense, and that’s precisely the kind of look Patrick Mahomes has shredded all season. With Travis Keelce and Tyreek Hill wrecking havoc down the seams, and Mahomes ability to fire the ball with laser type precision, the recipe is their for the KC offense to have an absolute field day. I realize that the Colt’s defense has been a strong point for them in this run, but if you examine their opponents, you’ll see that the Colt’s have only faced one offense ranking in the top ten all season. The Patriots hung 38 on them in that game. The Chiefs offense isn’t just top ten in the league this year type good. Averaging 35.3 points a game, they’re third best in the history of the NFL level good.

I realize that the Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been stellar by any measure, but they have enough pieces to make Andrew Luck and that offensive line work. Including Jones and Houston on the defensive front, and the steadily improving Eric Berry in the back end. If the Colts want to win this game, they’re going to have to score at least in the high 20s – low 30s. Playing with a lead makes you scheme differently, but the way Indianapolis’s offense sputtered late against Houston has to be at least noted. For as smart as Andrew Luck is, he has his moments of making bad decisions with the ball.

As abysmal as Andy Reid’s playoff record is, he’s money after a bye week. When his team is coming off of a bye his record is 17-3.

I think it’ll be hilarious if KC wins by two TDs and ruins every square’s 4 underdog teasers on the first leg.

Cowboys @ Rams -7

I have to admit… the Cowboys went out and fixed the defense that’s held them back from being a legit Super Bowl contender in years past. They absolutely shut down the Seahawk’s number one rushing attack. But its one thing to take down no-name Chris Carson within Brian Schottenheimer’s unimaginative gameplan… This week they get Todd Gurley, who’s been saving his legs for the playoffs, and the boy wonder, Sean McVay.

Aside from getting shut down at Soldier Field, the Rams offense has looked nearly unstoppable when they’re interested. I have no doubt they’ll do their thing. The question mark on how the rest of the postseason goes for this team will be how the defensive side of the ball performs.

The stat that every square loading up on the Cowboys is pointing to, is the Ram’s NFL worst 5.1 yards per rushing play they’ve given up this season. Even without Alec Olgetree this year, that stat is surprising when you have Suh and Aaron Donald positioned in the teeth of that defense. But something happened in the last month of the regular season. The defensive numbers started to improve…

In LA’s last four games, they gave up a mere average of 17.5 points. Could it be that all those big name additions are just now starting to meld together? It doesn’t matter how talented a team is, if they aren’t comfortable in the scheme, then they aren’t playing to the best of their ability. And in the pros, its all about playing your best football when it counts the most. Another thing going for that defense, is their back end is finally starting to get healthy. Marcus Peters is feeling better and Talib is back on the field.

The majority of the Cowboy’s success has come in Jerry’s World this season. With them going out to the Coliseum, the offense isn’t likely to perform as well as they have at home. If the Rams defense finally starts living up to their billing, and Dak Prescott is in a situation where he has to keep up with what McVay’s offense is doing, this very well could end up being a blowout.

Worth noting: The Wade Philips revenge factor against his former employer.

Chargers @ Patriots -4

The last time these two faced off in the playoffs was the 2007 AFC title game where Rivers played on a torn ACL. Yet, Marcus Mariota couldn’t play in Week 17 with the playoffs on the line cause of a stinger… Marcus, if you’re reading this, I want you to know you’re dead to me.

Initially, this decision felt difficult. As its been parroted by a lot of experts, the Chargers are the better team. And they have the remedy thats been able to defeat Brady in the past: A pass rush. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa can get to the quarterback as well as anybody, and I love the rookie Derwin James making plays all over the field. But there’s something I just can’t get past. Everybody seems to be LOADING up on the Chargers. But this is still postseason Foxboro, with the fog horn blasting. And this is still Tom ‘Mother Effing’ Brady.

Less than 40 percent of the tickets are coming in on the Patriots. Since 2003, when Brady’s getting less than 40 percent of the action, he’s 8-0-2 ATS and covering by an average of 9.1 points.

A day will come when the Patriots fall short of playing in the AFC Championship game (7 years running). And that day may very well be this Sunday. But until I see it with my own eyes, I’m not betting against them. If you want to hop on a public dog going into Foxboro in the postseason, then do so at your own risk. You don’t get rich going against the Cheatriots in games like this.

By the way: The NFL is rigged y’all, and Fidel Goodell loves him some Robert Kraft.

Eagles +8 @ Saints

If the Eagles win this game in the damn Super Dome, they need to erect a statue of Nick Foles (depicting his giant cock and all) in the middle of Philadelphia’s town square.

There’s a part of me that wonders if the Eagles have been the beneficiaries of some favorable matchups over their current postseason streak. The Falcons are perennial chokers, they got noodle arm Case Keenum outdoors, the Patriots defense last year was not good at all, and the Bears offense turned out to be abysmal and their kicker missed a routine NFL kick to win the game. No doubt this Saints team is the toughest test they’ve faced over this stretch. Oh, and they have to go play them in their building where they basically don’t lose. I think its possible that Drew Brees could shred the Eagles secondary that’s been suspect all season. But… I think the Eagles find a way to keep this one close.

Why?

I’m genuinely starting to believe that the good Lord above is an Eagles fan.

Football is as much an emotional game as any. The Eagles got heart. They got moxy. And most importantly, they got belief. I’m not ready to say they pull out the outright win, but they’re scrappy enough to cover this number. I just don’t see how this all ends for them with a blowout loss.

Follow Me On Twitter: @AdamRobertson13

 

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