CFB Week 6 Picks

“WE NEED TO RESET OUR JAWS” – Coach O 

The piece on Coach O that dropped on The Athletic this week is an absolute masterpiece. Just brilliant journalism. The man throwing haymakers into his own face cause he’s so freaking hyped up, is the type of energy we’re bringing to blog the rest of the season. I just ripped my shirt off and ‘Stone Cold Steve Austined’ two red bulls myself before sitting down to write this. Speaking of, if any of my readers have a plug for Wild Tiger energy drinks, feel free to hop in my DMs. Your brother needs a case of that delicious and unregulated Middle Eastern nectar. Or is that available on the dark web? Does anyone know?

You know you’re heating up when you go 8-4 ATS and aren’t happy with yourself. Despite the nice profit, we could of done much better. I punked out on taking North Carolina and rolled with Clemson, cause when you’ve had a down stretch, you start to second guess your own thoughts. Well not anymore. If DJ Khaled ever thought us anything, its NEVER PLAY YOURSELF.

When you’re sitting at the blackjack table, you don’t hold back when the cards start falling your way. Typically the runs come in stretches. Both good and bad. When things aren’t going your way, you have to resist the urge to try and get it all back at once. And vis versa, when the run comes, you put on more damn steam.

I feel good right now. Not necessarily about where we’re at (27-28-1 ATS), but in terms of where we’re going. As Kirby Dumb said regarding Pruitt and the Vols, we’re on the brink of something special. I put a little extra juice on every play this week. The Money Train is finally approaching Cashville after a brief stint meandering in the proverbial gambling wilderness. Just as Grant and Sherman withstood the initial onslaught at Pittsburg’s Landing, we will stay resilient and ultimately win the battle against the forces bearing down upon us (i.e. read your local bookie).

Let’s. Get. Hot.

UCF -4 @ Cincy (Friday)

No Thursday night special this week?? I may be forced to bet the NFL game. I kind of like the Rams in the bounce back spot, but its tough to play on the road for those short Thursday night turnarounds.. I’ll still probably ride with them.

In fact, I just hopped over to my book and bet it.

Cincinnati is a nice team, but I’ve seen this movie before. When I said I wasn’t doubting the Golden Knights again, I wasn’t f***ing kidding. The Pitt loss will just make them all the hungrier. And make no mistake about it, until proven otherwise, they own the AAC, the 6th member of the Power 6 conferences.

UCF is flat out statistically superior on offense, and it’ll take a hell of a performance from Ridder and company to keep up. And for as much hype as The Golden Knights have surrounding their offensive attack, the defense has been surprisingly good upfront. They’ve been getting to the quarterback, and with the Bear Kitties offensive line a glaring weakness, I think Cincinnati is going to have issues here.

Iowa @ Michigan -3.5

The line… the ticket discrepancy… do you see it too? Its time.

I know its still Michigan, but all things considered, does this qualify for our newly patented ‘Stinky Line of the Week’ special? (Oregon State brought us to an astounding 5-0 on the year for these). You have undefeated Iowa coming into this matchup against a Michigan team that just about everyone has written off. Given the public’s heavy mistrust of the Wolverines in big games, and the fact they’re still favored (with the hook) gives this enough credence. Truth be told, I don’t have any other good options for this category on the slate, so this will have to do.

Is Wisconsin really that good? Did it take moving Josh Gattis down to the sideline to jump start Michigan’s offense? Iowa certainly hasn’t played anyone decent outside of Iowa State, and they’re simply slightly above average right now in my opinion. At some point it all comes back around unless the Harbaugh / Michigan marriage really isn’t meant to be. This game is in the Big House. The Wolverines have the superior talent. And I’m going to air on the side of Iowa not starting 5-0.

From what I’ve heard and seen out of Michigan’s camp, they have a big fat chip on their shoulder right now.

Auburn @ Florida +3

TELL ME HOW MUCH YOU HATE IT. I’m listening squares. Your foolish taunts are pleasing to my ears.

This one may not be a ‘Stinky Line’ special, but its certainly a classic Money Train play. This spread is off. In fact, this game should be closer to a pick. Or even Florida -3. Lets review some reasons I like the Gators here…

  • Auburn is 5-0 ATS. Who the hell goes 6-0 ATS to start the year?
  • All my buddies hate this pick. GREAT sign.
  • So you’re telling me you’re going to throw a true Frosh QB into the Swamp against a quality pass rush and very good defensive backs and expect that shit to go smoothly?
  • Say what you want about Meatloaf Mullen, but he has this Gator squad playing with a little bit of swaggg
  • A team everyone loves vs a team everyone thinks is overrated
  • Auburn has a suspect secondary and Florida has speedy WRs
  • Losing Felipe ‘Pool Boy’ Franks might have been the best thing that could of happened to the Gators

Is the Swamp back? This will be the biggest game played there in a few years. The trash ass Florida fans are a wretched type. And when they get going, it can feel pretty hostile.

For the record, this is basically the exact same spot as the LSU-Florida game last year. LSU was hot. Florida was slept on. The Gators were 3 point dogs at home in that 3:30 CBS slot. And you know what happened? We cashed that Florida +3 ticket when the Gators won outright.

Virginia Tech +14 @ Miami 

Listen. I know its gross. But gross is good. And as bad as Virginia Tech has been, Miami ain’t shit either. Virginia Tech just got absolutely destroyed by Duke, but Miami’s last win was a 5 point margin of victory over freaking Central Michigan.. Their only other win is against Bethune Cookman. I can’t in good conscious lay two full touchdowns with the Hurricanes against almost any Power 5 team right now.

Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS. That has to come to an end soon right?

What the hell happened to Justin Fuente? That guy was one of the hottest coaches on the market when he got to Blacksburg, and multiple teams tried to steal him away a couple years in. It really makes you appreciate the fact that Frank Beamer was able to rip off 8 straight 10-win seasons there. Simply incredible.

Texas @ WVU +10.5

Trap game? Morgantown is a tough road trip for their Big12 counterparts, and this is a look ahead spot for Texas with the Red River Shootout on deck. The Mountaineers have had Texas’s number, and after Will Grier took the Longhorn’s soul in Austin last year, you’d be tempted to call this a revenge spot. But with a new quarterback and new coach for West Virginia, I’m not entirely sure it applies as much. You just get the feel that Texas could sleep walk here.

Not sure this is a hot take, but ultimately West Virginia will be better off without Dana Holgerson. Neal Brown seems like a good fit, and his team has comported themselves well up to this point. They haven’t blown people out of the water, but they also haven’t taken a bad loss, which is a good sign.

I’m not as sold on Texas at this point in the season as I originally was. The offense gets the job done, but the secondary (and defense as a whole) have not played well enough to consider the Longhorns a Big12 championship level team, unless that side of the ball gets fixed. You can’t beat OU at their own game.

Arizona +4 @ Colorado 

If you thought those last two picks were nasty, I’m officially bathing in the muck and the mire with this one. Kevin Sumlin on the road is about as low as I’ve gone, but there’s something about this Arizona team that’s suckered me in… They haven’t lost since that opening Week 0 game at Hawaii.

Khalil Tate is having hamstring issues? No problem. The backup just threw for 352 yards and a TD in the last outing. I think either Tate or the new kid will have enough to carry this offense against a Colorado defense that just flat out isn’t very good. In fact, Arizona’s offense out matches Colorado’s defense in literally every major statistical category.

For two teams that have been about on par as either mid or lower tier Pac12 programs in recent years, the Wildcats have owned the Buffaloes, winning 6 out of the last 7 straight up.

UGA @ Tennessee +24.5

Its safe to say I have serious issues.

However… coming from a life long Vol fan, I will say that getting defecated on by Florida and then turning around to play Georgia closer than expected is basically a yearly tradition. And I’m not just saying that. Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Bulldogs. It probably has a lot to do with the lines being slightly out of wack considering it comes right after those Florida beatings.

I have a fellow gambling confidant that has brought a new strategy to my attention that seems to work well for him, and that’s looking hard at dogs were the line was already large but keeps inflating. UNC last week would be a good example. Ohio State – Nebraska would not be, but Ohio State is just playing on a different level right now.

When you look back at Jeremy Pruitt’s tenure to this point, you could argue his team played two of their best games against Auburn, where they won outright, and last year’s UGA contest where his team was in the game in the 4th quarter (afterwards Pruitt was damn near in tears talking about how proud he was of the way his team competed). He’s an Alabama guy, and no doubt that Auburn game meant something to him. As far as UGA is concerned, he’s coached there and there’s certainly a personal rivalry between him and Kirby Dumb. This game is personal, and obviously its the same for Chaney as well.

There’s a lotttt of disrespect being thrown Tennessee’s way. Georgia fans are showing up in full force and attempting their own checkerboard pattern of black and red. ESPN freaking used the Lady Vol logo on their site for the matchup. It wouldn’t surprise me if this game got a little weird and was closer than people think.

Michigan State @ Ohio State -20

Can Ohio State keep covering these big spreads?? I can’t stop and won’t stop betting the Buckeyes until proven otherwise. They’re an absolute buzzsaw. It seems as if they’re on a mission to not only beat people, but make a statement doing it. They have been plagued two years in a row with one bad loss, and they are determined to not let that happen again. No sleep walking at any point. Its natty or bust.

Michigan State’s defense is solid but their offense is still subpar, and I don’t see them remotely keeping up considering the level Ohio State’s defense is playing.

Dingo’s Moneyline Parlay 

The man is a TCU loss away from going 2-0 on these puppies. I tracked him down for round tres and he’s keeping it simple this week:

  • Texas
  • UNC
  • Oklahoma State
  • SMU
  • Washington
  • Maryland

Pays +232

Bonus Pick

Give me the Atlanta Braves moneyline tonight against the Cardinals.

A-Rob’s CFB Top Ten 

  1. Ohio State
  2. Clemson
  3. Alabama
  4. LSU
  5. Georgia
  6. Auburn
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Wisconsin
  9. Florida
  10. Penn State

Personal Plug 

If you’re looking to follow my picks, here’s some ways you can do so:

Twitter: @AdamRobertson13

Facebook: I have a Facebook group called “A-Rob’s Money Train”, go give it a like

Instagram: @doscappers (my buddy Dingo and I post picks of all sports on there regularly)

Email: If you hit the follow button on the home screen of my site, you can sign up to have all my writing pieces sent to your email directly as soon as I publish them. Also, with any business inquires, feel free to email me at adamclayrobertson@gmail.com

fantasyteamadvisors.com: The guys over there are running my ‘CFB Picks’ articles on their site as well. Be sure to check all their stuff out. They provide top level content pertaining to Daily Fantasy; including: NFL, MLB, and NBA for FanDuel and Draft Kings.

FYI: I’m putting out the college football picks late Wednesday night / early Thursday mornings. Thanks for reading. Let’s get rich.

 

 

 

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