CFB Week 4 Picks

There are two types of people in this world.

There are sheep (sheeple). And there are wolves.

The sheeple are not necessarily a cowardly type. I have heard about and seen various sheeple act as brave as a human being can be. They are often very fastidious in their beliefs, not to mention their capability for nobility. But it is not bravery, or valor, or even physical strength that separates the sheeple and the wolves, as it is more so portrayed in nature.

The true disguising factor is the tendency to capitulate and assimilate. And you know what? There’s nothing wrong with that. It takes all types in this world to make it go round. That’s why our creator enriched our planet with a multitude of personalities, some similar and others on the opposite ends of the spectrum. It gives the universe harmony. The Ying and the Yang. Namaste.

But let it be known that A-Rob is a gah dang wolf.

There’s a funny game you become involved in when you’re one of the wolves. And its not played with the sheeple. Its a game between other wolves. Especially the ones that are power hungry and fiend for control. There are wolves that want to turn other wolves into sheeple, thus enlarging their territory of influence. And for those of you that feel the need to direct that energy at me, you’re in for a hell of a resistance.

A-Rob’s Money Train or A-Rob’s Roller Coaster? 

To this point in the season, has the Money Train been profitable? No. We sit at 14-18-1 ATS. But has it been entertaining? You’d be lying to yourself if you said it hasn’t. We’ve been on the end of some ugly losses (and a push), as well as some damn good wins and thrills (Shout out to Ryan Hilinski for giving us a hell of a cover. And I haven’t forgotten about you either, Bo Nix).

Listen, I do realize this is more about the picks than anything else. ITS ALWAYS BEEN ABOUT THE PICKS. And in all honesty, this is a new situation for us. The Money Train has never been in an overall unprofitably position at this point in the season. But fortune will favor the bold. Trust the process. This season is still going to bring us cash stacks. Last Saturday we had our first winning week. The seal is broken. And now… we’re about to start going ham.

Houston @ Tulane -5 (Thursday)

King is a fun quarterback to watch, and its easy to fall in love with offense. But you gotta be able to play some defense baby!

Tulane is a sound football team. On both sides of the ball. I wanted to take them early in season, but somehow they’ve slipped my mind. They have my attention now. And if they haven’t gotten yours, take a look at this line. The books are begging you to take Houston (a Group of 5 team the public has some knowledge of).

The Green Wave has played solid defense all year. They held FIU to 14, Auburn to 24, and Missouri State to 6. Offensively, they are a ground and pound attack. Remember what happened last time Houston played an option team? Army absolutely shredded them on national television.

And this game is in New Orleans? The Green Wave is set to deliver the green bag.

Utah @ USC +4 (Friday)

An important lesson in gambling: transitive properties need not apply.

BYU got smacked by Utah. Then they beat USC outright. Therefore Utah should take care of the Trojans? Not so fast my friends. I’m not letting BYU throw me off the scent of USC. In fact, I’m done taking stock in anything that happens in a BYU game. Those damn Mormons keep costing me money cause I keep thinking I have them figured out, only to be made to look foolish in the end. DARN YOU COUGARS AND YOUR POLYGOMOUS FANBASE.

You know what’s interesting about this Utah-USC series? The home team has won the last six meetings.

If you still think Mike Leach and his air raid system is a gimmick, you need to pull your head out of the 1990s. The shit works. In the 50 games prior to Mike Leach arriving in Pullman, Wazzu was 10-40. His record there is 37-13. He took an average (at best) program in Texas Tech to heights they’d never seen. The guy is a developer of coaches and players. And the man calling the shots for the Trojans on offensive is no other than his former Red Raider quarterback Graham Harrell.

I say all that to point out styles make fights. Utah is a physical football team, but the finesse and speed of USC could make this very interesting. Clay Helton is still not dead yet.

Tennessee +14.5 @ Florida

Something in my system causes my PH level to get out of wack the beginning of Florida week. Like some building concoction of hope for victory and disdain for the opponent unlike any other rival on Tennessee’s schedule. The maddening, bewildering, and embarrassing course of events this series has taken over the last 15 or so years would cause lesser fanbases to crack. But not us. We’re still here for it. And one of these days the tide in this series is going to turn. And I will revel in every bit of it for as long as that run lasts.

Is Tennessee good? If you base it off the record, you’d have to say no. I mean the Vols lost to Georgia State who just got destroyed by effing Western Michigan. But that was a few weeks ago. This has always been about conference play. The beginning of an SEC revenge tour where Tennessee may not get all of them, but they’re damn well getting at least a few of them. This team has gotten better every week. A lot of young guys have been out there, and I see a couple potential stars starting to show signs of life.

The real x-factor is how number 2 plays. And behind an improving offensive line and run game, JG has to start showing something. Its now or never with him. And if his performance in this game ends up being more evidence of the latter, then I say just go ahead and pull the plug and get one of those young qbs in there.

Is Florida good? If you base it off their 3-0 record and the ranking next to their name, you would be inclined to say yes. But after watching a few of their games, my eyes tell me they’re pretty damn average. And pretty damn beatable at that.

That offensive line is nothing to write home about. They’re banged up on the defensive front. And they have a quarterback making his first start since he was in freaking middle school (I’m serious, look it up).

Dan ‘Meatloaf’ Mullen and his gang of heathens escaped Kroger Field with a win I’m not sure they deserved. Could this be the week the chickens come home to roost? I’m going to miss the Pool Boy, but we have a potential new source of dark humor in Kyle Trash (sometimes the jokes write themselves).

Give me the Vols and the points. I’m not necessarily calling for the outright win, but that +475 moneyline is just too damn juicy for me to stay away from. Sprinkle that bitch with me if you have any balls.

Cal @ Ole Miss -2.5 

I spoke with a middle aged woman just today that moved to Nashville from Northern California. She told me the weather is literally the same all year round, except it rains consistently between February and April. Let’s just say Cal making its way across the country to the deep south is going to put them in an element they’re not accustom to. The humidity and heat in Mississippi is just different. Keep in mind, this is a noon kick (high 80s by kickoff, could be worse but definitely gives the Rebs-I-mean-landsharks a slight edge).

I understand Cal’s defense is stingy. They’re especially good in the secondary. They have a nice win against Washington, but you have to admit with the weather delays, that game was at least a little fluky. And for as good as their defense is, the offense doesn’t do them many favors. If they’re going to win games, they have to make it a defensive slugfest.

Last year, when you thought of Ole Miss, you thought about offense. But Mississippi seems to have a surprisingly competent defense. And after a rough start against Memphis, Matt Corral is coming along at quarterback. Speaking of Corral, he’s a California kid himself. The only one on Ole Miss’s team. He spurned the Golden Bears in terms of his recruitment, having his eyes on playing in the SEC, the best damn league in college football. He should be extra motivated to shred his home state team.

Michigan +3.5 @ Wisconsin

Fun fact: I’m betting these games as I write this week. I’m scrolling the slate, locking in a bet, and then immediately writing about it before going on to the next. Keeps this a little more organic. Something that pops out at me is Michigan is 0-2 ATS. Wisconsin is 2-0 ATS. You know what that means?

Just as everyone starts to sell Michigan, its time to buy a little Wolverine stock.

Laying 22.5 with Michigan was one thing. Still haven’t forgiven myself for that one… But underdogs? Very tasty.

Wisconsin has started out on a tear, but you know what? That win at South Florida really doesn’t impress me much. Charlie Strong and his USF Bulls are basically hot garbage. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, which I have to think benefitted the sloppy Wolverines more than the Badgers, who would have probably been content with keeping the momentum going.

As much as Michigan has looked out of sync on offense (I’m thinking they’ll have a breakout game where they put it together), they’re defense has still played pretty damn well. Do you remember that salty offensive line Wisconsin had last year? Most of those dudes are gone, and Michigan’s front seven is a different level of opponent than they’ve faced.

Appalachian State @ UNC -3

I’ve told you people, I’ve told you people, I’ve told you people. We zig and zag. Zig and ZAG.

However, in this instance we are on the side of the public, which goes against how that typically works, but like I always say, sometimes the public has to win some money too.

This game could be chippy. Two in state schools squaring off, but are we really sure who little brother actually is? How is this the first time these two programs have played each  other? If this game lives up to the billing and is a good one, they should consider making this a regular thing.

App State has made it a habit to make a decent showing of themselves in these matchups with Power Five opponents. But with UNC coming off a loss against another North Carolina school, and coming back home, Mack Brown should have his team locked in this week.

Kentucky @ Mississippi State -6

And for this version of A-Rob’s stinky line of the week, we’re headed to Stark-Vegas. So far, the stinky line specials are 2-0 with Maryland -2 vs Syracuse and Wake Forest -3 vs UNC both hitting.

Coming off that brutal soul crushing defeat to the Gators, the ‘Den of Cowbells’ is a tough bounce back spot. Kentucky really missed out on a prime opportunity to boost their program to another level. If you come off a 10 win season and then follow it up with a second straight victory over Florida, you’re making a strong statement about how far your program’s come. But alas. They choked that one away.

Originally I thought it could be a good thing for Kentucky to move on from Terry Wilson. He can run, but he’s definitely one dimensional. That was until I got a load of this Sawyer Smith character. That dude is a turnover machine. And you want to bet him on the road in another tough conference game? Count me out.

The Bulldogs may have lost to the scrappy Kansas State Wildcats, but they found themselves a starting quarterback in the process. If they had started the game with Garrett ‘Helicopter’ Shrader behind center, they very well may have won.

South Carolina +9 @ Missouri 

HILLINSKI!! You wily son of a gun. Way to hang in and deliver the +25.5 cover last Saturday.

This kid isn’t short on moxie. After the game, he said that he felt the Gamecocks were on their way to a comeback victory if the game would of lasted longer. And then he called Alabama ‘just alright’.

GAHHHH that’s the kind of quarterback I can get behind betting as an over touchdown dog on the road. Especially against Missouri, which I’m still not sold on. I mean they opened their season with an L to the freaking Wyoming Cowboys and now you want to lay 9 here? This is a conference game between competently matched talent. Not to mention, South Carolina has won the last 3 against the Tigers. The Cocks should be able to put some points on the board and do enough defensively to at least keep this one close.

Charlotte +41.5 @ Clemson 

This one is ugggggly. There’s a strong possibility I feel like a complete asshole by halftime. But I have a confidant that’s a fellow gambling sharp who turned me on to the 49ers last weekend. Their head coach could be an up and comer, and my compatriot has made money betting them the past two weeks. I was interested to see what number Vegas would spit out for this one, and its just enough points to have me backing them here as well.

Charlotte runs the ball well enough that they should be able to keep a few possessions alive and run some clock. The M.O. is to minimize the pain, get that check from Clemson, and get out of Dodge.

The Tigers are coming off two games they had circled as hurdles to start the season. Now they have this chance to rest up before they get into the meat of their conference slate. I can see them treating this as a bye game, playing a healthy dose of backups, and being satisfied with simply fine tuning a few things without running up the score over what’s necessary to feel good about the win.

Oklahoma State @ Texas -5

I liked this at 7, so I’m all over this line movement.

Its fair to have some degree of concern for the Longhorns defense after that LSU game. But let’s be real, Joe Burrow looks like he’s about to lit up quite a few teams this year. Not to mention, Texas has a young defense. I assume they will continue to improve.

When you think of a Mike Gundy offense, you probably think of the passing game. But this year, they have relied much more heavily upon their rushing attack. Chuba Howard is a damn good back, with an even better football name. Now, back on the subject of Joe Burrow, LSU was able to light up the Longhorn’s secondary (self proclaimed DBU). However, they didn’t get much on the ground. This could actually play to Texas’s strength on defense.

By the way, this is a revenge game. In fact, the Cowboys have owned Texas recently, winning the last four meetings. Tom Herman should have no problem getting his team’s full attention for this one.

Notre Dame +14.5 @ Georgia 

I planned on taking UGA all week. But the more I thought about it, and the more this line crept north, I couldn’t help myself. I’m on a ML parlay with the Dawgs as well, so I’m hoping the Irish keep it close and I cash both tickets.

I will say the fact that Notre Dame is ranked all the way at number 7 feels a little generous. As of now, they seem more adequately placed in that 10-15 range. But here’s their chance to prove me wrong, as well as most college football fans for that matter. And that’s the point…

Notre Dame has had all offseason to think about the shellacking they took to Clemson. Their name has been drug through the mud, and you know, maybe that’s a little harsh? They’re not the first, or the last, big name program that’s been embarrassed by Clemson in a big spot (Alabama 2019 and Ohio State 2016). The problem is, that wasn’t the first time the Irish have been put into a championship scenario and gotten boat raced. But this… this is the perfect chance to save a little face.

Not to mention, Notre Dame has actually comported themselves well in these marquee regular season matchups (outside of Miami 2017). Ian Book has another offseason under his belt, and has looked good so far. UGA is talented as all get out, but they’re still young, and this is this year’s version of the Bulldog’s first real test.

Dingo’s Moneyline Parlay 

So Dingo’s just going to casually waltz in on his very first picks feature and drop an absolute BAG? Its like that?? If you missed it, look back at his parlay last week and view that nice +315 payout in all its glory. The man isn’t messing around.

Here’s what he has on the docket this week, and I have to say, it smells delicious:

  •  TCU (-340)
  • Oregon (-390)
  • Texas (-200)
  • Georgia (-600)
  • Green Bay Packers (-365)
  • LA Rams (-150)

100 dollars pays 504.16

A message from Dingo: “Tell people to buy a ticket or get off the f***ing train.”

I appreciate the energy, and he’s not wrong.

Be sure to follow our jointly run Instagram account: @doscappers

A-Rob’s CFB Top Ten:

Is it too soon to bring this spot back? Probably. Typically I save me rankings for the back half of the season, but hell. Any self respecting college football writer has their own top ten at any given point, and I’m here for it.

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. Ohio State
  4. LSU
  5. Georgia
  6. Oklahoma
  7. UCF
  8. Auburn
  9. Texas
  10. Utah

Personal Plug 

If you’re looking to follow my picks, here’s some ways you can do so:

Twitter: @AdamRobertson13

Facebook: I have a Facebook group called “A-Rob’s Money Train”, go give it a like

Instagram: @doscappers (my buddy Dingo and I post picks of all sports on there regularly)

Email: If you hit the follow button on the home screen of my site, you can sign up to have all my writing pieces sent to your email directly as soon as I publish them. Also, with any business inquires, feel free to email me at adamclayrobertson@gmail.com

fantasyteamadvisors.com: The guys over there are running my ‘CFB Picks’ articles on their site as well. Be sure to check all their stuff out. They provide top level content pertaining to Daily Fantasy; including: NFL, MLB, and NBA for FanDuel and Draft Kings.

FYI: I’m putting out the college football picks late Wednesday night / early Thursday mornings. Thanks for reading. Let’s get rich.

 

 

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