Bowl Betting Extravaganza

Summoning:

  • Spirit of the Coyote- Known for his cunning, caution, and adaptability. Smaller than his cousin the wolf, the coyote relies on a unique set of skills in comparison to the strategies of larger predators. The coyote has perfected the fission-fusion technique to expand his territory and minimalize the probabilities of being harmed. He senses when he needs to form a pack with others or when it is in his best interest to separate into smaller factions. Summoning the Coyote spirit will assist us in recognizing when to join the numbers on the public bets and when to go rogue and fade popular opinion.
  • The Great Catfish Spirit- An opportunist with elite level senses. The Catfish relies on taste buds that cover his entire body to detect food sources within the waters of a lake, pond, or river. Essentially, the Catfish is a living, breathing, swimming tongue. We will rely on the Catfish spirit to help us determine which bets are the tastiest and juiciest of them all.
  • Spirit of the Hen- These female chickens are humble in nature but they are relied upon heavily for the survival of their human overlords. The Spirit of the Hen rests prominently over the vast farmlands found on this rock we call Earth. The spirit promotes fertility in hens and in doing so provides for mankind. Just as a hen that produces no eggs is useless, so is a betting expert that fails to produce winners. We have invoked this chicken spirit to ensure our picks are golden eggs.

With the Coyote, Great Catfish, and Hen spirits summoned, we are ready to cap this bowl season off right. These picks are the last I will provide you before the national championship. After that point the Money Train will change course, looking to the professional level for our source of cash bags. Its been a hell of a college football season for us. But as Nick Saban likes to say, its all about how you finish. I picked a hand full of remaining bowls that I found tasty and then picked the entirety of the New Year’s Six line up. Full steam ahead for the last full slate of college football cash sacks:

Florida State vs Southern Miss +15

How much money have we lost on this now Jimbo-forsaken FSU team? This team may have harmed our record all year but we will rectify this right here, right now. Oh Seminoles. So much defensive talent just wasted. You make me sick. This team wants no part of this Independence Bowl against C-USA. Frankly, I’m sure they’re embarrassed to even be there. With an interim head coach and nothing to play for but what little pride they have left, I assume we’ll see an uninspired performance. The talent gap should keep them from an outright loss but Southern Miss could come out looking feisty.

Boston College +2.5 vs Iowa

BC is currently hotter than the ghost pepper going 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games. This is the same team that walloped FSU 35-3 and beat a surging Lamar Jackson team as part of that run. Iowa has had their moments this year as well. Obviously the drumming of Ohio State is what people will point to. But Iowa seems to be a different team on the road. Not to mention they dropped two games in a row post their victorious slaying of the Buckeyes. This game takes place in New York so this is certainly much closer to Boston College’s neck of the woods. Iowa, we are deeply indebted to you for keeping Urban ‘oh my heart’ Meyer out of the playoff, but here I must fade you.

Texas vs Missouri -3

Here’s the way I see it…. In bowl season you can choose to buck the trend or just ride it out. I don’t have the answers or reasons for why, but Missouri has been unstoppable for weeks. Despite their level of opponent, when they’re on a roll like they are you just take them and leave it be. Texas is improving but that Tom Herman recruiting class isn’t in uniform yet. Not to mention, Drew Lock’s been told he’s not good enough for the NFL draft but I think he wants to come out. Watch him try to put on a show as he tells his haters to suck it.

Stanford +3 vs TCU

This game is one of the more intriguing ones to me. Both of these teams have shown they can play but Stanford has just really impressed me. They put away Washington and Notre Dame with no issues and they had plenty of chances to win the Pac-12 championship. TCU is in for a drastic contrast in style than they are accustom to playing. Stanford plays with tight ends and power formations. Its a far cry from the arena league football TCU typically sees in the Big 12. Ultimately I think style of play plus Bryce Love makes the difference for Stanford.

USC vs Ohio State -7.5

Is this spread a little big? Yes. Does that scare me away? Hell no. This Ohio State team is very talented. All things weighed, this team was set to have a great shot at a natty. They under performed this year and will have to face the consequences. However, lets look back over the past two years at the teams that narrowly missed the playoff. 2015 TCU played lights out and 2016 Penn State played well, but ultimately fell short to a better USC team. I gather that in both instances the teams played at their highest level despite if they won or lost. If Ohio State comes out and plays with that same level of intensity, they should have no problem covering this spread. USC is good but Ohio State has a point to prove. I’ll take Urban Meyer given the situation.

Louisville -6.5 vs Mississippi State

This one seems so easy that it almost scares me. But why is this line not 7? I like that we’re getting this -6.5. Look, Dan Mullen is gone. We’ve seen what losing your coach before the bowl game has done to other teams so far. Nick Fitzgerald is the biggest bright spot on that campus and he’s now sidelined in a boot. On the other side, Lamar Jackson has been playing lights out. Its almost as if having the spotlight off him this year has made him play looser. I expect he’ll be in full playmaking form for this one. Louisville’s defense is certainly suspect, but even so, I don’t see how MSU without their qb is going to be able to keep up in this one.

Iowa State vs Memphis -3.5

The books are trying to bait us into taking the Cyclones and we’re not biting. I just love this Memphis team, I can’t help it. To me they’re just a step shy of being UCF. They are 10-2 with their only loses coming at the hand of Frosty Scotty. They put up mad points and the only way to beat them is to beat them in a track race. I don’t think Iowa State is up for that challenge. They’ve limped into this bowl going 1-3 to finish the regular season. Matt Campbell may have something started there but this feels like Memphis’s year. They’ll cap it off in fashion.

Washington +2 vs Penn State

What’s that smell? A kind of smelly smell. That smells….. smelly.

FADE.

THE.

PUBLIC.

72% of the tickets have been written on Penn State.

Huskies, let’s ride.

Wisconsin -5 vs Miami

Bucky Badger!! He’s come through for us time and time again this season. I won’t abandon him now. The kicker is the fact that this is the Orange Bowl. The Orange bowl gets played in Miami’s stadium… However Miami has proved to be a bit fradulate coming down the stretch this season. Rosier has been harassed in the pocket and they rely on him to make their offense go. Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t just been good, its been elite. They should be able to shutdown Miami’s offense. I don’t think this matchup could be any worse for the Hurricanes.

UCF vs. Auburn -9.5

As fun as this UCF team is to watch, this is where the magical run dies. Getting Auburn in the Peach Bowl is a tough draw for the Golden Knights. Auburn is about as talented as any team in college football. With Kerryon Johnson healthy, they’re about unstoppable and I’m hearing he’ll be healthy enough for this one. How will UCF stop him? How will they handle Auburn’s D Line? It just doesn’t seem like things will go well for them. Good luck UCF but I gotta lay all these.

LSU -3 vs Notre Dame

Betting bowl games often comes down to who’s hot and who’s not. And LSU is hot and Notre Dame is certainly not. In Notre Dame’s last 3 games they were abused by Miami, squeaked one out against Navy, and were then man handled by Stanford. LSU rebounded in a big way following their loss to Troy and put together a decent run. Looking at trends, LSU went 6-0 ATS to end the regular season and Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games they’ve played in January. Throw in the revenge factor from a recent Music City bowl were Notre Dame beat LSU rather easily. All the signs point to LSU. Don’t fight it.

(Nacho Libre voice) Lets get down to the nitty grittyyyy:

Georgia -2 vs Oklahoma

What a compelling game. Baker vs a stingy Georgia defense seems to be the story. And I do think that will be a hell of a battle. Roquan Smith is as good of a collegiate linebacker you’ll see and Baker Mayfield has all the intangibles of a championship quarterback. But here’s what I don’t hear being talked about… Oklahoma’s defense is about to see a run game like they’ve never faced before. They haven’t seen anything like what they’re about to see in a Sony Michel and Nick Chubb combo. Yes, Jake Fromm is a freshman and if he has to win the game for Georgia they will be in trouble. But I don’t get the feeling he’ll have to do anything spectacular in this one. On the other side, the pressure may be on Mayfield to keep up and I don’t care how good you are if you have a pass rush all over you and Roquan Smith as a qb spy, that’s a tall task to handle.

The correct side on Georgia’s big games have escaped me this year. I had them beating Auburn on the road and then I had them losing the SEC Championship. Georgia did pounce on Kerryon Johnson every time he was down and who knows what happens if he had stayed healthy in that game. But hey, that’s football. One side note: The last time Georgia won a natty was 1980. That next year Clemson won a national title. With Clemson winning their next title last year, could these teams be a harbinger of each other? Just a thought.

Alabama vs Clemson +3

Ah the trilogy. Part 3. When it comes down to it, you have to decide for yourself who is Ali and who is Frazier? Who is Golden State and who is Cleveland? Who is Federer and who is Nadal? Initially my thought was that this one must go to Bama. Nick Saban and the Tide are the dynasty after all. But what if things aren’t as simple as that? In reality every trilogy stands on its own. What if Dabo Swinney is a rising Nick Saban? In fact, their win percentages are already not that far off from each other. Here’s the deal: honestly I think Clemson is the better team right now. Bama has been good but they haven’t looked like normal Bama to me. Clemson is playing absolutely lights out. I said this when Bama played Auburn and it ended up coming to pass: If you can bottle up Jalen Hurts, keep him in the pocket and force him to throw, Alabama is in trouble. Just like Auburn, Clemson has an elite level defensive line and pass rush. I honestly think the wrong team is favored here. Take the 3 points.

Parlays and Teasers:

To make things a little more fun I’ll give you some teasers and parlays I’m looking to play with these picks. I like to do these based off of when games take place so you don’t have to wait around for days to see if your bet is going to hit.

Dec. 27 Teaser: Southern Miss +21, Boston College +8.5, Missouri +3

Parlay: Stanford +3, Ohio State -7.5

Dec. 30 Parlay: Louisville -6.5, Memphis -3.5

Dec. 30 Parlay: Washington +2, Wisconsin -5

Jan. 1 Teaser: Auburn -3.5, LSU +3, Clemson +9

Jan 1. Parlay: Georgia -2, Clemson +3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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