Divisional Round Picks

Breaking: We’re dirty nasty sick at betting again.

Let this decree ring out and reverberate off Vegas’s city walls. The echo sending a chill down the spine of every bookie while causing audible gasps from inside the sportsbooks. The bookies will turn upward, lifting a fist to the sky, and curse me vehemently. But I will not be deterred. After the cursing subsides, they will attempt to appeal to my emotions. They will beg for mercy. But I will not consider it. My heart is cold. My purpose clear. And my determination unwavering. Now that we officially leave college football behind, Nick Saban has left us with a reminder. The great ones do whatever it takes to win. How cold blooded do you have to be to bench your starting qb for a true freshman in the middle of a national championship game? Nick Saban doesn’t care about your feelings. Nick Saban cares about winning. He’s bent on world domination. And with that final note, the Money Train trudges forward. Into the midst of winter and NFL playoffs, I will take from the sportsbooks and line your pockets with the bounty. Who’s with me?

The year of the dogs?

After a smoking hot CFB regular season, its no secret we didn’t finish the way we wanted. But I am poised to make up for what happened and more in these NFL playoffs. I pride myself on being able to pick these games. So far we’re already 3-1. Last week all I heard in the betting community was everyone was looking for an underdog to bet on but there wasn’t one. A lot of experts picked every favorite to cover. And do you remember what I said? This year the playoffs feel very fluid and I could hear a lot of dogs barking. Every single underdog covered the spread last week. Where else are you going to get this kind of spot on analysis? The only team that screwed us was the LA Rams and I don’t know what the hell was wrong with them. Their punt returner forgot how to field the ball and for some reason they outright refused to get the ball to the best player on their team in Todd Gurley.

Let me tell you something about my betting strategy. When it comes down too it, there are no real rules. Some people swear by rules and I’ve been known to invent rules myself, but none are fool-proof. At the end of the day its all about tapping into your intuition. Picking up on the vibe. Betting is all about feel. Its all about soul! Ying-Yang is an ancient oriental principle. When something zigs you have to zag and when others are zagging I consider zigging. It seems like everyone is counting on a Steelers-Patriots AFC Championship and I’m here to tell you I don’t see that as a given. A lot of AFC South disrespect is going on and there’s a reason two of those teams still stand. The NFC is looking like a wide open race, but could they be the conference that features their one and two seed in their championship? SO MANY STORYLINES AND SO MANY CASH BAGS TO BE MADE LETS GET RICH MOTHER TRUCKERS

Falcons @ Eagles +3

I have to be honest, of the four games this weekend this is the game I struggled with most. Originally I was on the Falcons. Then I almost went Eagles… but then I went back to Falcons. And then it hit me. Eagles are the play.

I feel nostalgic. During last years playoffs I jumped on the Falcons early and rode them all the way to the Super Bowl. They kept balling and they were peaking at the right time. This year they could be peaking at the right time again. Last week bettors underestimated them but not this week. This week people are all over the dirty birdies. Now catch this: This is the first time in NFL history that a one-seed is an underdog in the divisional round. Ultimate. Dis. Re. Spect. Yes they don’t have their starting quarterback, but we’re talking about a team that went 13-3 (the last loss in a game they put no effort towards winning). They have an absolute dirtyyyy defensive front and talent all over that side of the ball. I say this a lot but I’m a sucker for high level defense in big games. Another thought for Atlanta: they are a dome team. Last year they were fortunate to have home field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl. The previous game they just played took place in warm southern California. Playing this game in Philly in the middle of January is about to be a whole other world.

Bonus: On the tails of another Georgia disaster in the CFB game, it feels right to go ahead and put this Falcon team to bed.

Titans +13 @ Patriots

That’s no typo. You read that shit right.

Laugh if you want. But in the end, Money Train passengers will be laughing all the way to the bank after the Titans cover this spread. Everyone and their mother seems to be on the Patriots in this game. But in gambling, if it seems that easy, that’s when you need to be cautious.

Patriots fans are living in denial. In lieu of the recent article published by ESPN, you can’t deny that SOMETHING is going on up in Foxborough. Some say that Belichick was the leak. Obviously, he comes out looking the best in the article. Others say its a total fabrication, looking to give the Patriots extra motivation for a title. Either way, I say its weird as hell. If its real, and I think there’s got to be some truth to it, then the 3 headed Patriot monster (Belichick, Brady, and Kraft) are having real issues. If its fabricated, then why in the hell do they need any extra motivation to win this title? The Patriots are ripe for a letdown. Enter the Titans.

The worst playoff team in years? On paper, maybe. But as a Titan’s leader mentioned, there’s some underrated savages on this team. Derrick Henry wears teams down as the game progresses and he seems to be about as good as it gets for a fourth quarter back. Mariota has been prone to make some mistakes and miss some throws but that guy is a competitor. He looks like he’s gaining confidence and has shone the propensity to be a gamer. The Titans defense stepped up when they had to last Sunday, and that includes taking out Travis Kelce. Let this be a lesson, you talk too much trash this Titans defense will concuss your ass.

I’m not sure how this game plays out exactly but the Titans cover.

Jaguars +7.5 @ Steelers

I know what your thinking. I’m going against my ultimate NFL fade principal. Fade Blake Bortles. But in all fairness, that principle applies more so when the Jags are laying a TD or more. Also, I told you right now I’m slinging from the hip. I’ve gone full gut-feel mode. It’s a good sign though. I equate it to untucked jersey Kyrie Irving and hoodie Melo. In all fairness, the Jags offense looked abysmal against the Bills. But, they won the game. And maybe that was the thought process. Play conservative and don’t do anything to cause you to lose. I expect a much different attitude from the Jags this week.

I’m not sure how much we should weigh this, but the Jags did pummel the Steelers on the road earlier in the year. If anything, it should give Jacksonville a level of confidence knowing they can beat this team. The Steelers have a condition that I’m hoping lingers into the playoffs. And that condition is they seem to play to the level of their opponent, whether that’s down or up. Throw in the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is without a 100 percent healthy Antonio Brown. If Sacksonville can live up to its name, and play a good game defensively, they’ll find themselves in this ball game.

Saints @ Vikings -4

I told you guys defense is my soft spot. And holy cannoli, this Vikings team seems to be at the top of every statistical category. They’re straight up throwing it back to the days of the Purple People Eaters. What’s even scarier for the Saints is that the Vikings defense goes super saiyan when they play at home. In Minnesota they’ve given up an average of 12.5 points per game… That’s dominant.

Overall I expect this to be a good game. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram vs the Vikings run defense will be a hell of a battle. I just can’t help but lean toward the superior defense and home field advantage. The Vikings ripped the Saints earlier in the year in Minnesota with Sam f***ing Bradford. If he can do it, Case Keenum should be just fine.

Parlays and a Teaser

Last week the Rams had to go and ruin our gross nasty teaser. In honor of that one almost cashing, lets see if we can make this one look even grosser.

Teaser: Eagles +9, Titans +19, Jags +13.5, Vikings +2

NFC Parlay: Eagles +3, Vikings -4

AFC Parlay: Titans +13, Jags +7.5

 

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