CFB Week 6 Picks

Trust the process.

Consistency while following a proven system begets wealthy investors. Slow and steady wins the race. Discipline, discipline, discipline.

You can be a great handicapper and still lose money playing this game. As conductor of this train, it is my duty to offer sound advice and steer you in the right direction. I once received a word that I never forgot from a wise old matron. She told me, bet the same amount every time. Don’t raise or lower it. Now for the most part I follow this principle, however I do double up on particular games I like every now and then. But if you simply trust my system, and stay steady, whether you put 15 dollars on every game or 15,000, you will make money.

The key to any season is to stay at or above the 55% clip, and we are at least reaching the base of Money Train standards (30-24 ATS, 55.56%). After going 7-4 for our 3rd winning week in a row, I’m diving deep into the inner workings of my subconscious to evaluate where to go from here. The Bible says that the Voice is not heard in the wind, earthquake, or fire, but it is delivered in a gentle whisper…

After performing 30 minutes of yoga as the sun rose above the horizon, I’m ready to get us fat cash stacks.

Utah State +3 @ BYU

Here’s your Friday night degenerate bet of the week featuring the wacky Mormons. If the bet you took behind the bleachers of your local inner city high school didn’t pan out, remain calm. Utah State can get you back to even before the Saturday slate even begins. This isn’t your dad’s Aggie team, after taking Michigan State to the wire in week one, they scored 60, 73, and 42 in their following games. BYU has been decent and I imagine they will be the public side in this game. I’ll go against the grain and take Utah State to get our weekend started off right.

Missouri +1 @ South Carolina

I feel like South Carolina is being overvalued here. In the two games they faced quality opponents they looked downright bad. Bentley has been a disappointment thus far and the real Muschamp is finally standing up. Missouri on the other hand was very much in their game against UGA. If they hadn’t kept shooting themselves in the foot, it would have been much closer. Now Missouri is coming off of a bye week with two weeks to prepare for this one. Drew Lock is a gunslinger and Missouri will no doubt put points on the board. I just don’t see how South Carolina’s offense will be able to keep pace.

Oklahoma vs Texas +8 (Cotton Bowl)

No disrespect to OU, this is a numbers play. The line opened at +7.5 and I was eager to see which way it moved. If the number got below 7 I was inclined to go with Boomer Sooner, but the line crept up to 8. That feels like too many points to me, especially when you examine the past five years.

  • 2017, OU won by 5
  • 2016, OU won by 5
  • 2015, Texas won by 7
  • 2014, OU won by 5
  • 2013, Texas won by 16

Never underestimate the power of a rivalry game in college football. I would venture to say OU had the better team in most, if not all, of those seasons. This is the best Texas team I’ve seen in a while. After their puzzling performance against Maryland they’ve rebounded with impressive wins over USC and TCU. I picked Texas to win the Big 12 at the beginning of the year and just maybe they are a little bit of the team I thought they’d be.

Boston College @ NC State -4.5

When it comes to betting NC State, I can’t stop won’t stop. Not until they’ve let me down anyways. The Wolfpack have covered two in a row for us and I’m all for riding the hot hand. If they keep this up a few more weeks, I’ll get a tattoo of Ryan Finley throwing a sack of cash into my outstretched arms as I tip toe the corner of the endzone. Boston College has been good offensively this year but I’ve not been impressed with their ability to play defense. As improved as Boston College has become as a program, it still seems gross to take them on the road.

Clemson @ Wake Forest +18

Trouble in paradise??

Look I’m all for stacking players in recruiting, but I take a bit of exception when it comes to doing that with quarterbacks. This is a prime example of where it can bite you in the ass. Quarterback is a tough position cause only one dude gets to play. Its not like the other positions where guys rotate in and out. That’s why for the life of me I can’t figure out why a high level quarterback wants to go anywhere where a successful quarterback has numerous years left to play (cc Justin Fields. Have fun being the run situation guy behind Fromm for two more seasons). I don’t blame Kelly Bryant. To hell with Clemson, go start for someone else, you can’t bench the veteran and expect him to come back now. I sense the chemistry with this team may be a little off and it looks like Lawrence might not even play Saturday. The Wake Forest quarterback is a nice young talent and I’ll fade 1-4 ATS Clemson.

Florida State @ Miami -12.5

I know I said don’t underestimate a college football rivalry game, but FSU is really bad. That O-line couldn’t block my 78 year old grandfather. Although in their defense, the man is robust for his age. No doubt Jimbo Fischer saw the deficiencies (in his team that he recruited by the way) and tucked tail for Texas A&M to avoid the train wreck that is the FSU program right now. Willie Taggert is certainly not the answer but Nick Saban would have a tough time winning games with that offensive front. Miami is getting hot and may not be fraudulent after all. Sure they got blown out by LSU but shit happens.

LSU @ Florida +3

Maybe its because Florida has traumatized me over the years, but I always assume they are good. In hindsight, maybe their loss to Kentucky wasn’t as embarrassing as we all thought. I was high on Florida to start the year and now I’m thinking it would be so UF for them to come out and win this game. This feels close and I like getting the points. The Swamp is not a fun place to play and LSU is confusing me this year. Their stats just aren’t quite matching up with their level of success. They covered for us twice and part of me feels dirty for abandoning them here, but if there’s a letdown spot on their schedule, this is the one. They were underdogs to Miami and Auburn but being road favorites in a traditionally tough series is a totally different type of spot.

Kentucky @ Texas A&M -5

To my dear, dear Kentucky friends:

13th in the nation! Wow! I’m happy for you guys. I really am. I never thought I’d see the day, and if you’re being honest with yourselves, I’m sure you never thought you would either. I know you guys think I’m too hard on you, and maybe your right. So I thought I’d take a second and say a few nice things about your football team. Benny Snell is a very good running back. If you guys want ‘Benny Snell 9th place Heisman finish’ shirts, I’d be happy to get you one for Christmas. As for your quarterback, I think he’s one of the better kept secrets in college football, a quality dual threat. And your defense, despite letting the 1-4 Central Michigan Chippewas put up 20 on them, has played well.

Before you get upset with me for picking against the Cats again, think of it as a good omen. If I picked them they would lose for sure. Statistically, I like the matchup for the Aggies. Its no secret that Kentucky’s strength is the run, they are at the top of the SEC in rushing yards per game. However, Texas A&M happens to lead the entire league in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. Before last week they were holding teams to an average of 87 yards on the ground and then on Saturday they held Arkansas to a measly 56. Mind you, two of those teams they played were Clemson and Bama.

Kyle Field is a tough place to play. If UK does pull this out I just might have to start putting respect on their name.

Auburn -3.5 @ Mississippi State

Remember when I said Mississippi State may have upgraded at coach this year? That is precisely why you stay away from hot takes in September. Mississippi State sorely misses Dan Mullen. They’ve put up 13 points in the past 2 games and with Nick Fitzgerald at quarterback, that seems pretty damn incompetent. When it comes to Auburn, I’m starting to have my doubts. Offensively they just don’t look like they have it together right now. But Auburn’s defensive line is still full of freak show talent and with Mississippi State’s current scoring woes, this feels like a bad matchup.

The Tastiest of Tasty Teaser

This tease luck is getting ridiculous. I have given out five 3-game teasers in a row that have each missed  by literally one f***ing game. Its truly been incredible. In order to break the streak, I’m uping the ante with a 4-game tease.

Missouri +7, Texas +15, Miami -6.5, Florida +9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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