CFB Week 5 Picks

We’re starting to get H-O-T.

Last week we went 6-3 ATS for our second winning week in a row, bringing our overall record to 23-20. We had some catching up to do, but after I adjusted course, it took one week to make up for two bad weeks, and then last week to pull ahead. Still, 53.49% is not up to Money Train standards. Stonewall Jackson was able to rout opponents because he always pressed the attack to his brigade’s fullest ability when the opponent was on the retreat. Well, after these past two weeks your bookie may be leaving your texts on ‘read’ and sending you straight to voicemail, but this is no time to slow down. Do whatever it takes to get down on some action cause we’re just getting started.

Let’s go 11-0 this week.

Syracuse +23.5 @ Clemson

Good team’s win but great teams cover, and by those standards Clemson has just been good this year. Sure their lines are more inflated than a Kardashian’s ass, but inflated lines hasn’t stopped Bama or Georgia from covering. Trevor Lawrence gets his first start over Kelly Bryant this week, and I don’t care how talented the kid is, that doesn’t go perfectly smooth for most. Syracuse has covered 4 out of the last 6 matchups against Clemson and this looks to be the best Cuse team in a while. Its true, Cuse is a much better bet at home than on the road, but I have enough faith in them to cover this big spread Saturday.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas +21 (Dallas, AT&T Stadium)

If you’re looking for an ugly dog to play this weekend, look no further than the Razorbacks. They have been downright awful and are engaged in a heated battle with the Vols for ‘worst team in the SEC’ honors. Texas A&M has been good enough to pull out covers against both Clemson and Alabama, but I imagine they have to be a little banged up coming off those two games in the past 3 weeks. These are college kids at the end of the day and I’m sure they think they’ll be able to handle the hogs with no issues. That’s where I think the cover is in play, this is a rivalry and Arkansas will play with all they got.

I guess this game is now held annually in AT&T stadium, Jerry Jones is an Arkansas alum. Maybe he can toss some of his spare change to the refs as incentive to make a few calls that keep the Razorbacks in this one.

West Virginia @ Texas Tech +4

This is a play I got from a Big 12 insider I know. If you want to make fat cash stacks, you got to build a network and use your contacts. I also have a power index tool I use that actually has the Red Raiders favored by 5 points. That’s too juicy a spot to pass up. TTU has been putting up serious numbers on offense, they’ve scored 27, 77, 63, and 41 in their first four games. WVU has looked good but knowing Dana Holgorson and the Mountaineers, they’re certainly due for a letdown game.

Virginia @ NC State -5.5

This is no disrespect for what Virginia has been able to do thus far, Bronco Mendenhall has done a good job getting UVA turned around. However, do I think Virginia is due for a little bit of regression? Sure I do. They’re 4-0 ATS and coming off a smacking of Louisville and that’s a good time to fade any team that went 1-6 to finish the season last year. I’m also still high on NC State, Ryan Finley is a damn good arm talent and they get the chance to stay hot at home.

Purdue -3.5 @ Nebraska

This one feels a little too easy and you guys know how I feel about those, but when you personally make a bet on Purdue and they cover in convincing fashion, it makes you want to ride them into the next week. Purdue may have thrown some bettors off the scent after their 0-3 start, but this team is not bad. Nebraska on the other hand is downright putrid. I don’t think Scott Frost could have imagined how big of a rebuild that program was going to be. It also doesn’t help when you lose your talented young quarterback at the start of the year. The Cornhuskers are a very depressing 0-9 SU in their last nine home games and I don’t see how Purdue isn’t just a better team than them.

Tennessee +32 @ Georgia

Sweet mercy, I am an absolute glutton for punishment.

Sadly, this is not a joke, I’m actually betting this. Tennessee being abysmal or not, 32 points is a lot of damn points in a league game. Maybe Jeremy Pruitt tries to shorten the game? A lot of running the clock, trying to play keep away? Can we cut 6 turnovers down to like 3? Do Georgia’s 4th string players need reps??

If the Vols lose by 30 and cover I’m declaring it a victory and will be celebrating it as such. Get you some of that UGA.

Michigan -14 @ Northwestern

Don’t let what happened week one fool you, Michigan is good. They must have needed to work some kinks out cause they have absolutely put it on teams after their L to Notre Dame. Northwestern is just the next victim in Jim Harbaugh, Shea Patterson, and Michigan’s nasty D’s crosshairs. I think they’re enjoying flying a little under the radar but it won’t be that way for long.

Florida +8 @ Mississippi State

Last week the talk was how Florida was dreading this matchup with their coach’s ex team, where Dan Mullen would be rudely reminded of how good of a job he really did building a program at Mississippi State. However, I’m not so certain this one won’t be a game now. For one, how can the wind not be taken out of your sails after you let UK beat the hell out of you? Florida got the chance to get the bad taste of Benny Snell out their mouths with a warm up drumming of rival Tennessee, while Mississippi State is no doubt reeling at least a little from that loss. I feel like this line should be closer to 6.5 or 7. Dan Mullen is just as motivated to stick it to his old team as they are to stick it to him. I’ll take the over a td line value.

Ohio State -3.5 @ Penn State

When I was in college, some of my buddies and I went to Panama City for Spring Break. We met some Penn State bros that were staying across the hall and we bonded over chugging scoops of pre-workout and late night shenanigans. For the record, I met a lot of Michigan State people too and they get wild in the Big Ten. Ben, if you’re reading this, I’m sorry but I’m taking Ohio State. Urban Meyer is back on the sideline and NWO forces will be in full effect Saturday night. I can see why Joe Burrow transferred to LSU, Ohio State really has something in Dwayne Haskins at QB. Trace McSorely is a fun player but it seems to me that this Penn State team is a piece or two away from being a national championship contender.

#PCB2013

South Carolina +2 @ Kentucky

I’m gonna say this now and I mean every bit of it.

Kentucky.

Is.

Not.

Any.

Good.

I am selling the Wildcats and shame on every one of you that’s buying into this. That team hasn’t had a winning record in SEC play since the 1970s and that’s not changing this year. I’ll give them 8-4 with a 4-4 league record at best, which will be quite an accomplishment for their fans to celebrate. All this Benny Snell Heisman talk needs to stop. UK is getting way to cocky and big for their britches and when they come down its going to be ugly and don’t say I didn’t warn you. Ya’ll beat a bad Florida team for the first time in 31 years and Mississippi freaking State. I know ya’ll haven’t been here before so you’re clueless on how to act but enjoy your 2nd straight appearance in the Music City Bowl nonetheless.

Stanford @ Notre Dame -5.5

Stanford has continually bit me in the ass this year. They are a good solid team, but this is the game they get that first loss. Beating Notre Dame in South Bend is a damn hard task to handle. Its like the field has been blessed by the Pope himself and ‘Touchdown Jesus’ is there to let you know which side he’s on. Last year it took the SEC champs Georgia everything they had to get out of their with a one point victory. Michigan is showing to be more and more legit which makes that week one win all the more impressive.

Tasty Teasers

The Tasty Teasers have not been tasty, they’ve been freaking frustrating. We haven’t hit one, and the last three I gave each missed by one game. No matter. Load up on these tasty tastersons cause we’re due to hit big.

Teaser One: Texas Tech +10, NC State +0.5, Michigan -8

Teaser Two: Florida +14, Virginia Tech +11, South Carolina +9

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