CFB Week 12 Picks

How in the hell did I not call the Georgia choke job??

I officially owe an apology to all Money Train passengers. Sometimes in college football certain outcomes catch you off guard. I’m right more than I’m wrong (peep the 57-39-3 ATS record) and at times you have to swallow an L you just didn’t see coming. But this one bothers me. I know better. I KNOW GEORGIA. There was no freaking way they were just going to waltz to the SEC title game unblemished. I bought the hype and literally compared them to the 09 Bama team cause they beat Notre Dame by a point and boat raced the sorry SEC east? The playbook is officially out on how to stop Kirby ‘Sports Clips haircut’ Smart’s team. Stop the run and force the true freshman qb to beat you. Auburn showed how elite their front four is and just like classic Gus Malzahn teams, they’re catching fire coming down the stretch.

If its any conciliation, I did tell you that this Miami team could be for real. Just because their best receiver is white doesn’t mean you can keep disrespecting this team people. As a former white wide receiver myself (WWR for short), I downright reject such sentiments. For this upcoming week of games, the slate from an excitement to watch perspective looks relatively bare. But the opportunity to make cash stacks is always there. I hear a few dogs barking and I’m feeling confident about this week’s picks.

Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +3

I like to give out a Thursday or Friday night game cause who wants to wait all the way til Saturday to gamble? This one takes place Friday night in Bowling Green and features two 5 win teams with a bowl berth on the line. These teams seem evenly matched but MTSU is coming off two easy wins while WKU is on a 3 game skid. However this can be deceiving as those WKU losses have come to quality opponents in relation to their talent level (Marshall, Vanderbilt, Florida Atlantic). You should see maximum effort from both teams and given the fact the teams are even, I like getting the home team with points.

UCF @ Temple +14

UCF has been defeating opponents handedly. However Temple has quietly rallied to put themselves in bowl contention after a poor start. UCF is put in a tough position having to travel from Florida to Philadelphia for a noon kick. Perhaps UCF starts off groggy and Temple plays inspired at home? Maybe Scott Frost has spent more time on the phone with his agent than game planning?? I like catching the 14.

Michigan @ Wisconsin -7.5

Bucky Badger!! Wisconsin is still undefeated and taking care of business. All the while, they continue to fly under the radar. This Saturday that could change. Despite the fact Michigan has under performed, an impressive win over the Wolverines would certainly draw them more attention. The badgers traditionally perform well in this matchup. The last ten times Michigan has played Wisconsin they are 1-8-1 ATS and 1-5 ATS on the road. As of now, the public is actually backing the wolverines in this one and somehow I’m not surprised. Be a sharp and hop on the -7.5.

Georgia Tech -6 @ Duke

Duke is in total free fall. They’ve lost 6 straight after their 4-0 start. Georgia Tech has been great to bettors going 7-1-1 ATS this season. Georgia Tech is coming off an impressive road win at Virginia Tech and will gain bowl eligibility with a victory here. I expect the Yellow Jackets to be motivated and Duke fans are on to basketball season. I hope for the player’s sake that at least their parents show up to the game.

Kentucky +21.5 @ Georgia

I can’t believe I’m doing this. Betting Kentucky on the road is tough. But this feels like too many points!! Georgia is coming off an emotional loss where they got absolutely drummed. You have to wonder how their psyche will be affected going forward. I honestly don’t even know if this Wildcat team is any good. They’ve certainly benefited from the weakest SEC East in recent memory. However I don’t think Kentucky is bad. If they can get a few scores they’ll cover this spread. Plus 2/3rds of the public is on Georgia and when in doubt always fade the public.

Navy +18 @ Notre Dame

Similar to Georgia’s situation, it feels good to fade a team after a spirit crushing loss. Notre Dame has relatively no shot at making the playoff at this point. Navy seems to always play Notre Dame scrappy. Plus I think its difficult to completely blow out a team that’s perfected the triple option. Its built for the purpose of hanging around with teams that have superior talent to yours.

Missouri -8.5 @ Vanderbilt

The only analysis you need to hear on this matchup is that Missouri’s offense is good and Vanderbilt’s defense is just bad. In Missouri’s last 4 games they’ve scored 50, 45, 52, and 68. In Vandy’s past 4 SEC games they’ve given up 44, 34, 57, and 45. And we were told Derek Mason was a defensive guru…

LSU @ Tennessee +15.5

*car crashes in the background*

*a woman faints*

*a lawn mower shuts off*

Concerned citizen: “Are you aware Tennessee’s entire offensive line is effing dead?” “Do you realize Tennessee’s on their 3rd string QB??” “DO YOU HAVE NO SHAME???”

Me: Butch. Jones. Is. GONE. Neyland will be filled to capacity once again. I’m working on arranging a pregame ceremonial burning of the smokey grey uniforms to be offered in an attempt to appease the football Gods.

A-Rob’s Committee Vote

Once again, just to be clear, this is NOT my prediction of how the playoff will shape out at the end of the year. I am on a quest to fix college football and this is an active campaign of mine to be placed on the CFB Playoff Committee. If I was already a member of the committee this is how I would currently rank the top four.

1. Alabama

2. Miami

3. Wisconsin

4. Oklahoma

First two out:

5. Clemson

6. Auburn

 

 

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