Super Bowl LII Spectacular

“I’m wildin’ on my haters.” – Travis Scott

I’m 8-2 and I’m not talkin about straight up, I’m talking about ATS. My only question for you is do you want to become rich and powerful? The secret to your dreams is directly tied to your confidence in riding the money train. I’m here to take care of you, the people.

I got an email from a money train passenger last week. This guy is Michael Jordan-level gambling degenerate. Thanks to these playoffs, he’s paid off his mortgage and is looking into getting a second home in Aruba. My only advice to him was pick a home you like based on the structure. As long as you like the bones of the home, then the rest can be remodeled. He didn’t take too kindly to what I said and told me to stick to the picks. I immediately called his mother a scarlet woman and things only escalated from there. The climax occurred when he showed up at my house and we went 12 rounds swapping fisticas to the face in my front yard. The scuffle ended in a draw and we squashed the beef with a firm handshake.

Its officially Super Bowl week. Props abound, from betting on the coin toss to the amount of times Nick Foles is sent to the pit of misery, dilly dilly! If you need extra cash, go ahead and take that reverse mortgage out on your home cause I am here for all of the debauchery. The Super Bowl is the last football game we have so its time to gamble literally as much as we possibly can on one game. With the grand gambling finale of the football season at hand, I am unwavering in my brashness. I am stoic. I said in my last post, I want to finish this thing off 9-2. Not 8-3. So let’s get cash stacks.

Prop Bets

This is my strategy for how I like to bet Super Bowl props. Props are a major part of getting the whole experience. The miscellaneous props are obviously a crap shoot, so I try to focus my main attention on actual game props. However, I love to start things of with some action so I take some pregame props and then I’m all in on the actual game. I also prefer bets that pay out more than you bet. I try to stay away from laying big money for little return.

Coin Toss, Tails (-105): Any athlete that has been on any self respecting football team knows that tails never fails. Anytime any coin toss is ever presented in my life I always say tails. Some people like to fade ‘tails never fails’ and go with heads but those people are severely misguided.

Total time Pink sings National Anthem, Over 2:00 minutes (-140): I feel like odds makers are lowering this line cause they keep getting burned on the under. The overall average for a Super Bowl national anthem currently sits at approximately 1:58. However, I contend Pink has some serious pipes that are no doubt more impressive than most Super Bowl anthem alumni. Considering this, I think there could be some value on the over because Pink is about to give this her all. She’s from Pennslyvania so she’s gotta belt this one out for her hometown team.

Color of Pink’s hair, Blue/Purple (+700): My first inclination was blonde but my instinct told me to consult the wife. Her input I trust more on this one. After I read the options to her, she told me pink or blue/purple. Blue/purple is the obvious choice factoring in the much higher 7 to 1 payout.

Game Props:

  • 1st team to score, Eagles (+115)
  • Total INTs for Tom Brady, Over 0.5 (+120)
  • Total yards thrown for Tom Brady, Over 285.5 (-125)
  • Jay Agayi receiving/rushing yards, Over 85.5 (-125)
  • Most receiving yards in the game, Brandin Cooks (+400)
  • Total sacks by Patriots, Over 2.5 (Even)
  • 1st TD for Eagles, Legarrette Blount (+500)
  • Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored, Yes (+185)
  • Will there be a successful 2 point conversion, Yes (+275)
  • Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points, Yes (+400)

MVP Bet

Every year its fun to dig through the possible MVP odds and try to construct a case for any particular player to win the MVP. I like to do this and convince myself of about 2-3 different options to bet on. I ran through the list and settled on 3 guys based off my criteria. If you look at recent Super Bowl MVPs, the recipient is either a quarterback, linebacker, or sometimes a wide receiver. Running backs as MVPs seem to be a thing of the past. So I picked one option for each category. Here are my 3 plays:

Tom Brady (-110): Look, if the Patriots win, unless Brady got debilitating food poisoning from a bad avocado smoothie before the game and Brian Hoyer leads them to an epic win, Brady is getting the MVP trophy. Belichick may have scorned Brady for ‘Patriot of the Week’ all year but perhaps another one of these could ease his shame. If you like the Pats to win, you might as well just parlay Tom Brady wins MVP with the New England moneyline.

Alshon Jeffrey (+2200): At 22 to 1 odds, I like Nick Foles’ go to target. Against the Vikings, Jeffrey recorded 2 TDs, including catching an absolute bomb. If Jeffrey scores a couple more touchdowns Sunday and the scoring is low, he could potentially win MVP if he throws in somewhere in the neighborhood of 100+ receiving yards on 6-8 catches.

Brandon Graham (+10000): I wanted to go with someone on the Eagles defense. In the unlikely event that the Philly defense absolutely shuts down the GOAT in Tom Brady, someone on that defense would definitely be in play for the hardware. I ended up settling on Brandon Graham considering he’s the sack leader of that defense with 9.5 on the year. He’s been relatively quiet these playoffs considering his production level but that means he’s due for a couple big plays. Plus 100 to 1 odds is always fun.

A Case for the Eagles

The Eagles front four may not rack up a ton of sacks, but they do put pressure on the quarterback. If we’ve learned anything from the Giants and Broncos, the antidote for Tom Brady is an upper level pass rush. The Eagles have a ton of talent and run deep on the depth chart in their front line. As far as their qb situation, Nick Foles is not your every day back up. He’s shown the capability to put up big numbers and he’s playing well.

This is my first chance to respond to the conference championships and by all means the Jaguars should have beaten the Patriots. It seemed that down the stretch, the Pats had figured out the Jags offense. The Patriots defense is up against much more imaginative offensive play calling with the Eagles. To be honest with you, the Patriots are damn lucky to have won their past two Super Bowls. They have complete coaching meltdowns on the part of the Seahawks and Falcons to thank for their last two Lombardi’s. At some point the Football Gods must be just. Karma is due to come in a very bad way against them. Unless…. the fix is in. Thus my biggest concern in fading the Chosen Team.

Is the Fix in?

If you couldn’t see the AFC Championship game was a total officiating sham then God help your sheep brain. At the end of the first half, the pass interference call on the Jags that set up the Patriots first TD was egregious. The corner literally could not of done his job any better. He covered him so well (cleanly) that they ended up out of bounds and thus the ref throws a flag? In that spot, you can’t make that call. On the game sealing run by Dion Lewis, I saw a blatant hold that sealed the edge and gifted the Patriots their final first down. I haven’t heard much noise on perhaps the biggest officiating blunder of the day. When Myles Jack ripped the fumble free, got up and took off, why was the whistle blown? The refs called the play dead for no apparent reason even though the play was ruled a fumble from the start. If Myles Jack scores that touchdown (he was all alone), I don’t know if the Patriots come back from 27-10.

You’re free to think however you want, but professional sports do give advantages to certain teams and players. It was obvious from the start of the season that the Patriots were going to get the benefit of the doubt in every remotely close call. I have little doubt they will get a good whistle in this game but the question is how good? Was getting the Patriots to the Super Bowl enough for Goodell or does he have a sixth ring for Brady in mind?

My Pick

Let’s get down to the nitty gritty. When a team with the same coach and the same quarterback is on their 8th trip to the Super Bowl, we have a good size data pool. So let’s take a second to dive into the numbers. Here are the results of the Brady/Belichick rein of terror on Super Bowl Sunday (Included is the line for each game):

  • XXXVI: Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Rams -14)
  • XXXVIII: Patriots 32, Panthers 29 (Patriots -7)
  • XXIX: Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (Patriots -7)
  • XLII: Giants 17, Patriots 14 (Patriots -12)
  • XLVI: Giants 21, Patriots 17 (Patriots -2.5)
  • XLIX: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24 (Seahawks -1)
  • LI: Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (Patriots -3)

Patriot’s results:

  • SU: 5-2
  • ATS 3-4
  • SU as favorite: 3-2
  • SU as dog: 2-0
  • ATS as favorite: 1-4
  • ATS as Dog: 2-0

The Patriots margins of victory have been 3,3,3,4, and 6. Their margins of defeat have been -3 and -4. Regardless of the line, every game winds up being a close one. The Patriots have won by or lost by the exact margin of 3 in 4 out of 7 matchups (I included winner of this game is by the exact margin of 3 in my game props. Another interesting game prop to note is Eagles 1st team to score. The Patriots amazingly haven’t recorded a single first quarter point in all seven games). The outcome of all the Brady Super Bowls averaged out comes to a Patriots victory by 1.71 points. With all of this evidence, plus this being the Year of the Dog, my play is:

Eagles +4.5

The research says if you like the Eagles, take the points and stay away from that tempting Moneyline. The research also says if you like the Pats, save yourself some grief and take the moneyline. Its been a hell of a football season and I’ve enjoyed spending it with you. Enjoy the game Sunday and lets get this money.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s