CFB Week 4 Picks

Don’t call it a comeback.

After a historically slow start for the Money Train, the clouds finally parted and the storm passed. Last Saturday we ripped off a 10-5 week to even the score at 17 to 17. Sometimes the picks come easy and sometimes I have to grind it out, and now that we’ve worked ourselves back to even, its time to pour on steam and make cash stacks.

Boston College @ Purdue +7

Here’s the perfect opportunity to sell Boston College stock at its high point and buy Purdue at its low. Poor Jeff Brohm. His team comes into this one at 0-3 and they’ve lost those games by a total of only 8 points. They dropped a tough one in the opener to scrappy Northwestern and managed to lose to a good Missouri team by only 3. Now they are staring down the barrel of a 0-4 start and they’ll fight like hell on their home turf to try and avoid it. Boston College has looked good, but that’s not too difficult when you play UMASS, Holy Cross, and Wake Forest. BC is 3-0 ATS which is the perfect time to fade them.

Georgia @ Missouri +15.5

I went back and forth on if I really wanted to bet this. I may regret my decision by halftime, but I got a strange feeling this game will stay within 2 touchdowns. There’s no doubt that Georgia has become mini Bama, but the key word in that description is mini. UGA has been smacking the hell out of teams but only time will tell if they can do that with the consistency that Bama does. Its tough to maintain that level of play and even great teams have off days. Missouri’s quarterback Drew Lock is a special talent and when you have a guy like that slinging the rock, you have a chance of hanging around with anybody. For whatever reason, Missouri has been able to keep games close with Georgia ever since they entered the SEC East, despite whatever talent gap exist. I admire the type of program Barry Odom has been quietly building in Columbia and they will surprise some teams this season.

Texas A&M +27 @ Alabama

It was once said of the Confederate president, Jefferson Davis, that he was as cold as a lizard and as ambitious as Lucifer. You could make a similar statement regarding Nick Saban. When is it enough man? After all the championships, his program only gets stronger. He’ll probably win at least 5 more before he calls it quits. This particular Bama squad might be the greatest college football team of all time. That being said, I really like this Texas A&M team. Jimbo has them playing at a high level and Mond is a gifted quarterback. The way they played Clemson was beyond admirable and you could argue they should have won that game. A&M even with Kevin Sumlin seemed to find a way to usually cover against Bama, surely to goodness they can keep this under 27. If they don’t, I’m fully prepared to lay every spread over 35 with Bama the rest of the season.

TCU @ Texas +3

Maybe I’m just stubborn, but I still think Texas has the potential to have an above average season. USC is clearly not playing to their typical level but nonetheless, the way the Longhorns beat them down was impressive. TCU has absolutely owned Texas of recent and you know that sticks in the upperclassmen’s craw. TCU is coming off of a tough loss to Ohio State and now they have to turn around and play a tough rival on the road. If Tom Herman’s squad can use last game’s momentum and play with some confidence and swagger, I like their chances in this one at home.

Mississippi State -10 @ Kentucky

I know that UK fans think that I like picking on them (not entirely untrue), but to be honest I was fully prepared to take the Wildcats in this one. A 10 point home dog in cross-divisional rivalry game (this is a rivalry now right?) is a juicy opportunity. Anyways, that’s what I thought until I delved into some of the numbers… This Mississippi State team looks like they could be legit. They rank in the top ten of the entire FBS in both total offense and total defense. They have an elite defensive line and a veteran quarterback that routinely makes big plays. Could the Bulldogs have actually gotten better now that they’re without goofy Dan Mullen? I don’t want to overreact after three games, but I think Mississippi State may have actually upgraded at head coach.

NC State -6.5 @ Marshall

Marshall is a very good group of 5 school but I have my doubts they should be an under td dog. Before the hurricane canceled NC State’s game against WVU, the Wolfpack were only giving up 4 points against the Mountaineers. Ryan Finely is a big kid with a big arm at quarterback and can make good things happen. NC State lost a few pieces to last years draft on the defensive side of the ball, but Dave Doeren has been bringing in talent. Maybe this line is set this low for a reason and I’m a sucker, but I’ll take my chances and lay the 6.5.

Stanford @ Oregon +2

Sometimes in gambling if it seems too obvious then maybe it is too obvious. Stanford by in a large looks like the clear cut choice. They took care of business against USC and they look to be as good as they’ve been under David Shaw. Oregon on the other hand hasn’t been relevant since they had Marcus Mariota and they struggled mightily against San Jose St last week who, to put it kindly, is straight garbage. The vast majority of the public money looks to be pouring in on Stanford and yet the line isn’t budging… It seems like Vegas is more than willing to have some liability on Oregon this week and you know what that means.

Say it with me: Fade. The. Public.

Wisconsin -3.5 @ Iowa

College football is a funny game where your championship dreams can end due to one bad day in the middle September. Wisconsin had no business losing to BYU last week, yet here they are, coming off of a devastating loss. I still think the Badgers are very good. They have a rock solid offensive line and a running back that can pound away at a defense. Iowa is off to a strong start and, ironically, if Wisconsin had easily taken care of business last Saturday I would be much more incline to take the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin is about to unleash all of their frustrations in this one and I think if both teams bring their A-game, the Badgers win the game due to a talent edge.

 Florida @ Tennessee +4.5

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😐

Tasty Teaser

Mississippi State -3.5, Oregon +8, Texas +9

 

2 thoughts on “CFB Week 4 Picks

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