Week 8 CFB Picks

I feel…. vindicated.

In more ways than one. Is this even a gambling site if I don’t capitalize on my opportunity to tout? What makes me happiest is knowing that those of you that put your faith in me have been vindicated as well. We had a rough start to the season, opening up with back to back losing weeks. But since then we have been on an absolute tear, ripping off 5 straight winning weeks. Our 6-3 performance last week brings us to 41-31 (56.94%) on the year. In the past 5 weeks we’ve gone 34-19 which is 64.15%……..

To be honest, in a strange way, I’m happy the season started the way it did. The fair weather followers died off early, and the true blue believers trusted the process, and now reap the rewards of hoping on board A-Rob’s Money Train. Hell, I even gave out a +480 moneyline that hit last week, that I literally called out (documented on this site) in a post I wrote back on July 21st. But enough reflection, this season is far from over. And for those of you that are bummed that you’ve missed out on the spoils, don’t get down, its never to late to join the movement. Just know that the Money Train is a mythical vessel, and with great power comes great responsibility.

There’s no doubt that I’ve made many of you rich beyond your wildest imaginations, whilst entertaining you with my charming wit in the process. In all seriousness, I put a lot of hard work into this and I take what I do very seriously. All I ask from you, my faithful passengers, is to share the wealth. Tell someone about what we do here. Pass the site along to your friends and family. Let’s get on some Nick Saban – world domination – type shit.

Picking nine games has been working well, so lets not mess with the mojo. Here’s our slate for Week 8, in chronological order as always:

Stanford @ Arizona St +3 (Thursday)

I take great pleasure in finding an edge in a pre-Saturday game. Its like stuffing your face with chips and salsa at a Mexican restaurant, its something to get you through to the main course. This game checks a lot of boxes for me. Fade the public? Check. Home dog? Check. I even like the number. I tend to take teams that sit at +2.5 or -3.5 cause VEGAS ISN’T FOOLING ME. Arizona St opened at +2.5 and got bet up to three, and come to think of it, that means reverse line movement…. Another check.

I gave Herm Edwards a lot of shit when the year started, and look at me now. He’s done a decent job and his team seems to play for him. Arizona St is a much more formidable opponent at home, they’re 5-2 straight up against Stanford in their last seven matchups in Tempe. Stanford looks off to me, and Bryce Love doesn’t seem like himself.

Auburn -3.5 @ Ole Miss

Listen… Auburn is not a bad team just cause they lost to Tennessee. Honestly, I think their loss to Mississippi State was more troubling considering they only put up 9 points. But this is also the same team that took LSU to the wire and beat a good Washington squad. The Gus Bus has not completely broken down but it has blown out both its front tires, and the coaching staff is frantically trying to change them out before a semi truck (that’s barreling towards them) smashes into it.

Despite his massive buyout, it would not surprise me if Gus Malzahn was still fired at the end of the season. That is unless they can turn things around, and I mean quickly. The players have to feel the heat that is on their coach, and if they want him to keep his job, they’ll play for them. Ole Miss honestly isn’t any good. It took them a rally from behind effort to beat cellar-dwelling Arkansas last week and the Rebels would give up at least 28 points to your local high school.

Maryland @ Iowa -9

Spoiler alert: reverse line movement is about to be a theme this week. This number opened at 11.5 and has moved down to 9. I’m writing this on Wednesday night, and this morning it was at 10 and I was even prepared to take it there. Does it concern me that Iowa is 5-1 ATS this year? Perhaps a little but screw it, sometimes you gotta ride the hot hand. I’m also starting to think the only time Maryland shows up is when they play Texas.

I love the Hawkeyes when they play at home. But how can you not favor a team that’s being overlooked by a children’s hospital? I mean come on, that’s not even fair. Little kids with cancer are waving to fans and offering up incredibly powerful vibes in favor of their Iowa Hawkeyes. How are you suppose to compete with that?

Michigan -7 @ Michigan St

I’m not going to lie, there’s a part of me that’s salty about missing out on cashing Michigan tickets these past few weeks. Before the season I picked Michigan to win the Big 10 and I went heavy on them against Notre Dame. Then they went and pissed me the hell off in that game… Well, its taken me some time to heal, but I’ve come back around and I believe in them once again.

Michigan State has absolutely owned the Wolverines recently. They’re 10-0 ATS and 8-2 straight up this past decade. I have to think, for Harbaugh this one is personal. Don’t forget, just a few years ago Michigan State won the game off of some fluky punt play and wrecked Michigan’s season. There’s no doubt there has been a weird juju over this game but you know what happens in special seasons? Hexes get broken. Good teams win, but great teams cover. I expect Michigan to make a statement in this one.

Oklahoma -8 @ TCU

Make no mistake about it, Oklahoma and Michigan are both BEGGING to be put in a teaser this week.

Ok, now that the Texas game is over here comes the part of the year where Oklahoma starts annihilating their Big 12 opponents. Lincoln Riley is a stone cold killer in firing Mike Stoops after that loss, and honestly I admire the balls it takes to fire a beloved predecessors brother. Luckily for his replacement, it shouldn’t be difficult to look good going up against TCU’s offense. There’s no way the Horned Frogs are going to be able to keep up with Oklahoma’s scoring. OU dominated TCU in both matchups last season and TCU isn’t nearly as good now as they were then.

Alabama @ Tennessee +29

The Vols have covered two in a row for us, and while they’ve certainly cost me more money than they’ve won me, that +480 moneyline was nice consolation.

Even as big of a Tennessee homer as I’ve been, there’s no way I could even hint at the possibility of an outright upset over the biggest and baddest team in all of college football.

Unless…….

The stars aligned….

And the Aliens….

Set up the circumstances…..

Just right.

Whether Tua is feeling well or not, the guy hasn’t thrown a single interception all year and I don’t care how good he is, he’s due to throw one or two in a game. Also the weather in Knoxville will be rainy and a bit chilly at kickoff. Not ideal conditions for a guy that recently sprained his knee. Not to say that I wish injury upon any player, but Neyland isn’t known for having the greatest field conditions. In 2015, Nick Chubb blew his knee out and that had a lot to do with the Vols beating Georgia that day. I know Jalen Hurts could do a lot of damage to the Vols, he’s proven that in recent years. But in a situation where the passing game won’t be as simple to execute, it should be easier to focus on a game plan that minimizes his scrambling opportunities.

College football is a crazy game and even mighty Bama isn’t invincible. I’m not telling you to take the +3250 moneyline, but I will be in attendance and lets just say I already bought a victory cigar just in case.

NC State +17.5 @ Clemson

I’m sticking with the big underdog theme in the afternoon slot and taking the undefeated Wolfpack against the undefeated Tigers. Clemson is coming off of a bye and may be starting to peak just in time for the meat of their schedule. However, how can I fade a team that’s been getting cash stacks for us all year? NC State’s covered 4 games in a row for us and going against them now would just be bad juju. I’m committed to taking the Wolfpack until they let us down.

I’m a man of my word, and after NC State covered last week, I took some of my winnings and used them to get the most glorious back tattoo of Ryan Finely stiff arming a would be tackler while he heaves a cash stack into my open arms in the back of the endzone.

Minnesota @ Nebraska -3.5

Sometimes a team is just due. Nebraska is 0-6, and honestly I never thought I’d see the day they would be in this position. But looking at their results, non of their loses have been that bad, even the one to Troy. That Troy team has been straight up putting it to teams and they’re the same bunch that knocked off LSU in Baton Rouge last year.

In a matchup with two young coaches, PJ Fleck vs Scott Frost, I’ll take Scott Frost all day over ‘row the boat rah-rah guy’. Minnesota has shown the propensity to play well at home, but its a different story when they’ve gone on the road. They’re 1-5 ATS and 0-5 straight up in their most recent road games.

Oregon +3 @ Washington State

If you want to talk about the perfect spot to fade line movement, this is the one. This game opened at Oregon -1 and has moved all the way to Wash St -3, and to be honest, I just don’t get it. The only thing I can come up with is the public has an absolute hard on for goofy Mike Leach.

I feel like we’ve watched this movie before, where Mike Leach’s team starts the year hot, only to fall apart as they head toward the finish line. Washington State is 6-0 ATS to this point and come on, there is no way that team goes to 7-0 ATS. They are due for a let down and with college gameday coming to town, its high time the collapse happens.

Tasty Teasers

Heaaaavyyyy play: Oklahoma -2, Michigan -1

Teaser 2: Arizona St +9, Iowa -3, Oregon +9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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