CFB Week 9 Picks

“Write about what you know about” – Mark Twain

Every week I put a lot of energy into writing these miniature literary masterpieces for your reading pleasure, but lets get one thing straight. At the very heart of this project it has been, and will always be, about one thing:

Delivering you stone cold cash money picks.

Do I feel burdened?

I won’t lie to you. Its not easy being A-Rob Money Train. The pressure to perform with your hard earned money on the line is something I don’t take lightly. From the second lines are released on Sundays, I pour over the lineup, looking for edges anywhere I can find them. I keep thinking we are due for a bad week, but it just doesn’t happen. I’m starting to feel invincible…

We’ve had 6 straight winning weeks and the success is going to a few Money Train passengers’ heads as well. 401k accounts are being foregone with the Money Train proving to be more reliable than mutual funds. We’re now 46-35 (56.79%) on the year and 39-24 (61.9%) in the past 6 weeks. Just like anyone that achieves sustained greatness, I’m not satisfied. I’m ready to take these returns to the next level.

I’m writing this post a little late this week, I went to a Phish concert last night and I’m composing this with a slight hangover. Its not easy writing a piece under these conditions but I have a feeling that this is about to my version of the Michael Jordan Flu Game. The college football slate is very compelling this week, and the season is heating up. Starting today, there will be football on television for 27 straight days. Its officially money season ya’ll.

Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern +10.5 (Thursday)

App St is a typically a team I don’t like to fade, and this year that’s bared out more than usual. The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS and SU BUT this sneaky Georgia Southern team is 6-1 ATS and SU themselves. App St is starting to get a lot of press, as well as a lot of love from Vegas, and rightfully so. However, when you give me a team that’s covering just as well with 10 points at home, its hard to pass up. Georgia Southern lives to run the football, and they’re very good at it. The ground game is a great way to keep games close, it wears out opponents defensively, helps you sustain long drives, and ultimately shortens the game.

Miami -3.5 @ Boston College (Friday)

This is a renewal of a series that gave us one of the greatest plays in college football history. I rewatched Doug Flutie’s 1984 hail mary a few times on YouTube this morning, and I was reminded of how beautiful seeing a qb wear the number 22 truly is.

Originally I wanted to hop on Boston College. They’ve had a decent season with only 2 losses to relatively quality opponents in NC State and Purdue. Miami is not having the year they hoped for and Malik Rosier is now back at quarterback. Despite that, its hard to deny the talent edge the Hurricanes have in this one. At the end of the day, Mark Richt is the king of 10-2 seasons and it would not surprise me if they bounced back.

Utah @ UCLA +10.5

How beautiful is it to bet 3 games before Saturday even gets here?

At the beginning of the season, I heard some experts call for UCLA to go 0-12. And for a while, it looked like they might be right. However, it seems like things are starting to look up for the Bruins. They’ve won the last two and I have to say, I believe in Chip Kelly. He’s a hell of a college coach. Sometimes it takes a while for a new coach to get through to their players, and at this point they are a much better team than they were to start the year. Utah is on a tear right now but for them to blow a third team out in a row seems unlikely.

Clemson @ FSU +17

Going against Clemson with these big spreads has not gone well for us, but I’m banking on this being a weird rivalry game. Is FSU figuring it out? Here’s another team with a new coach that had a rough start to the season but seems to be improving. Since their meltdown in the Carrier Dome, they’ve gone 3-1 and should have probably won that game against Miami.

Is it terrifying taking this FSU offensive line against that dominant Clemson D-line? Definitely. But sometimes you just have to close your eyes and trust your gut.

Florida vs Georgia -6.5 (Jacksonville)

Here’s a lesson I learned the hard way playing blackjack: Step away from the table while you’re up. We’ve been raking in money off the Gators, they’re 5-0 ATS in their most recent games and we’ve had them in the last three of those.

These teams are similar to one another. Georgia and Florida’s strength on defense is defending the pass and both of their strengths offensively are running the ball. Ultimately, I like UGA’s run game more than Florida’s. Last year the Bulldogs responded in a big way after getting crushed by Auburn, so for now the trend is take Kirby Smart’s team after a big loss.

Iowa @ Penn State -6

Is it even a gambling article without a fade the public special?

Iowa has put together a nice year but some things never change. The definition of Iowa football is ‘pretty good but not great’. They whip up on the lesser Big Ten teams but when they faced one of the blue bloods, it typically doesn’t go well for them (unless they play Ohio State, then they could win by 30+). Iowa at home vs Iowa on the road is also a completely different story.

Penn State has to be pissed off. They’ve lost to Ohio State and Michigan State by a combined total of 5 points. Trace McSorely is one of the most entertaining players to watch in college football right now and if they can string together some wins, I don’t see why he shouldn’t be thrown into the conversation to at least be invited to New York for the Heisman.

Kentucky +7 @ Missouri

Where are the Cats??

Kentucky friends please stand up. I’m not sure what’s gotten into me, but I’m backing y’all this Saturday. Missouri is another one of those teams that beats bad teams but loses to good teams. Which brings us to the question… Is Kentucky a good team?

I know on this very site I said Kentucky isn’t any good. And while I’m certainly not ready to call them best in the SEC East level good, I’m ready to say their alright. They are sound in all areas defensively and have a great running game.

Any team that’s apt to stop the run is a tough matchup for the Cats, considering they can’t throw the ball worth a lick, but I haven’t seen that type of run defensive from Missouri.

Washington -11.5 @ Cal

Cal is coming off of an absolute drumming of Oregon State, which is the perfect time to fade them against this Washington team. While the path to the college football playoff is officially sealed off for the Huskies, they still control their own destiny in their division. Winning a Pac-12 championship is still a worthy endeavor for them, and doing so 2 out of 3 seasons would be a nice accomplishment. Washington is indefinitely placed on my fade list when they are playing other top tier teams until they can show me they can win a big game, but they are typically a covering machine against teams that are less talented than them.

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State -2

Low key, this is a great football game. It may not be the highest on your must watch list, but this will be a fist fight in a phone booth as these teams battle for the right to be called the 3rd best in the SEC West. Statistically, A&M boasts the 2nd best run defense in the entire country and the 1st in the conference. Somehow, Bob Shoop’s defense at Mississippi State ranks 1st in the conference as a whole.

I was high on both these teams coming into the season and I still am. What this decision comes down to is getting Mississippi State in Starkville with big money coming in on the Aggies, both sharp and square. I was on Jimbo’s squad until I saw that. Obviously, Vegas is more than ok having some exposure on the Bulldogs here. I can see where the signs are pointing and I’ll side with the cowbell people.

Washington State +3 @ Stanford

Help us Mike Leach, you’re our only hope.

Am I the only one that’s praying this all ends with Washington State beating Bama in a playoff game? I know that’s not happening, but think about if it did.

I’m not going to lie, I’m a little salty we’ve been missing out on this 7-0 ATS run. My preseason research did not like what the Cougars were bringing in, but now going into Week 9, I’m a believer. This game has trap written all over it. Stanford has a physical style of play, the line seems off, Washington State is coming off their biggest win in years, they’re past due to not cover a spread, and I don’t care about any of that. Still betting it.

Tennessee +7.5 @ South Carolina

To be honest, I really, really, don’t want to do this. Tennessee is going to end up not covering and we’re going to go 11-1 for the week, and its going to piss me off.

But, alas, I have no choice. In the preseason I called for the Vols to beat Auburn and South Carolina in this five game stretch, and with that being spot on to this point, I can’t back out now. Plus, this whole losing to Muschamp has got to come to an end. Ole Crazy Eyes is an average coach at best and we lose to him whether we have the better team or not. If Pruitt can pull off a road SEC West win in year one, is it too much to ask him to get this monkey off our back?

I’m officially calling for Keller Chryst to get the nod in this game. I’m over Guarantano. I don’t care how strong his arm is, it doesn’t do you any good when you can’t recognize a blitz.

Notre Dame vs Navy +24 (San Diego)

Navy has been absolutely brutal this year. That being said, I just don’t believe Notre Dame keeps their shit together coming down the stretch. Someone is going to beat them, I’m just not sure who. Most years Navy finds a way to keep this game close. Its tough to lose by more than 24 when your offense constantly keeps the clock moving.

Tasty Teasers

Teaser 1 (its gross): Georgia Southern +16.5, UCLA +16.5, FSU +23

Teaser 2: Georgia -0.5, Penn State (pick), Kentucky +13

Teaser 3: Washington -5.5, Navy +30, Tennessee +13.5