CFB Week 11 Picks + My Top Ten

A-Rob has a weird week + a bone to pick

To say last week was a roller coaster would be an understatement. Officially, the way the picks were given out, I went 5-5-1 (which brings us to 58-44-2 on the year). However, many of you did better as lines moved in our favor and if you got them later, you had a winning week. We had some great moments and some not so great moments. We laid chalk like a mother f***ing boss and were vindicated in doing so. We also bet on Kentucky, which the farther away I get from Saturday, the more disgusted I am with myself. UK could of at least taken care of the teaser plays, but they coughed the ball up with under two minutes left to give a final ‘screw you’ to any unfortunate soul that backed them in any way.

Speaking of screw yous, there is an epidemic sweeping our great nation that needs to come to an end. I missed just about every piece of sweet college football action cause I attended a wedding. What kind of sick twisted person do you have to be to plan your wedding in the Fall? On a Saturday. In the middle of the afternoon. And this isn’t the first time this has happened to me this year. If any of you out there are currently planning weddings, for the love of humanity, plan your special day for the middle of effing summer so your guests can sweat their ass off with a huge smile on their face knowing they’re not missing any football.

Pro Tip: Over the last few seasons, in weeks 10-13, double digit favorites have covered 57% of the time.

Fresno State -3 @ Boise State (Friday)

Let me tell you, it takes brass balls to bet a road favorite on the blue turf. Initially, I was all over Boise when I saw this line. That was until I took a closer look at Fresno State. I knew they were having an impressive year, but my heavens, they are absolutely. Annihilating. Everyone. The scores of their last six games read: 48-3, 50-20, 38-7, 27-3, 21-3, 49-27, and 38-14. That’s getting it done on both sides of the football. Yes, Fresno is the public side. Yes, they are road favorites. And yes, at 8-1 ATS, they’re due to not cover. But sometimes you gotta override your process when you get a team dominating at this level.

Boise State came into this season as the highly touted group of five team (along with UCF of course). They’ve had some bad luck with injuries and suffered a couple losses on the road. It’ll be interesting to see them play the role of underdog to a team that’s having the type of season they were expected to have.

Ohio State -3.5 @ Michigan State

Is Ohio State due?

After they lost to Purdue, I was convinced they would come out pissed off and beat the hell out of Nebraska. Not only did that not happen, but Scott Frost’s team very well could have won that game. Ohio State hasn’t been themselves for a while and its getting worse. They’re 0-5 ATS in their most recent games. But.. until they get that 2nd loss.. they’re still NWO. Urban Meyer no doubt sold his soul to the devil a long time ago and they still control their own destiny.

Haskins reached out to Shea Patterson to get the details on Michigan State’s defense, and Patterson obliged. If Patterson gave good intel, and OSU can move the ball on Michigan State, I really like them in this game. I know that the Buckeyes have had serious issues defensively, but that’s not where the Spartans excel. Michigan State is 111th in the entire nation in scoring offense, and though they have a good defense, Ohio State’s offense has been doing just fine. I don’t see how Michigan State is able to keep up in this one.

TCU @ West Virginia -12

This line has been inching down all week, and for the life of me, I can’t figure out why. Has the public been watching this TCU team? They’re straight garbage. They lost to Kansas two weeks ago…. KANSAS.

The Texas boys also have to travel to the West Virginia hills, and it gets chilly this time of year in Appalachia. I was skeptical of this Mountaineer team coming into this season, but they have completely won me over. I don’t think they’re getting enough respect. I have them 7th in my rankings instead of 9th. Will Grier is an absolute gun slinger and I’m not sure there’s another qb in college football I trust more in a two minute hurry up situation. Dana Holgerson looks like a wild man on the sideline, and honestly I think it boost his team’s swag.

Kentucky @ Tennessee +6.5

I don’t give a DAMN what Kentucky’s record is. Vegas opened this line up where they did for a reason. Georgia exposed the Cats for what they really are. When the big bright lights came on, and the stage was set, Kentucky football did what Kentucky football does. Shit the bed. Kentucky is an average football team. UK should have lost to Missouri, and they managed to only put up 14 on Vandy Candy??

I understand that a horde of Cats fans are descending upon Knoxville for this game. And for those of you that are, prepare yourselves. Neyland is Kentucky’s House of Horrors. UK hasn’t won a game there since 1984. Do you know how long ago that is? Ronald Reagan was just elected for his second term in 1984. Tennessee simply doesn’t lose to Kentucky in that stadium, and Tennessee certainly doesn’t lose to Kentucky two years in a row.

I got a question for you Bluegrass people. How’s it going to feel when Tennessee not only beats you in football, but also beats you twice in basketball this year?

By the way, I will be attending this game. I know I have a lot of Kentucky and Tennessee readers, so if you’re going to be there, hit me up. I’ll be getting my tailgate on, come see me.

Mississippi State +25 @ Alabama

Ohhhh no baby what is you doin???

Maybe the success has gone to my head, but hear me out. This was Alabama’s closest game of the regular season last year, aside from their loss to Auburn. I realize this Alabama team is a different animal than usual, so perhaps normal rules don’t apply, but I think its a good spot to fade them coming off that huge win in Baton Rouge. Mississippi State is super physical, and they will at least make Alabama earn it. They’re not the type of team to roll over and die.

Somehow, Bob Shoop, statistically, has the best defense in the entire SEC, and the best defense Bama has faced to this point. The Bulldogs are 1st in the conference against the pass, 1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in rushing defense. On offense, they rely heavily on the run, and are 2nd in the conference in rushing yards per game. Teams that can run the ball effectively can shorten the game and keep the other team’s offense off the field.

I can totally see this game ending 31-10 or something along those lines.

Auburn @ Georgia -14

The Deep South’s oldest rivalry.

My first reaction when I saw this line was that its too high, but on second thought it makes sense. I’ve been back and forth on UGA all year, and though I think I’m right that they aren’t near as good as last season, they’re still darn good. UGA has absolutely owned Auburn in Athens. The last time Auburn won there was 2005. Not only have they been losing, they’re also 0-5 ATS in their last five in Sanford Stadium.

Auburn to me this season just doesn’t look right. Statistically they don’t pop out at you anywhere and though they were able to pull last weeks game out of their ass, they were dominated most of the day. UGA’s run offense is first in the SEC and Jake Fromm is starting to really come on down the stretch.

Miami @ Georgia Tech -3

Tell me if you’ve seen this before, a Mark Richt coached team quits on him.

Miami turned out to be fraudulent last year and they have really bottomed out this season. They’re on a three game losing streak where they’ve lost to Duke, Boston College, and Virginia. They can’t get anything going on offense and the saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks you really have no quarterbacks. The defense keeps them in games but they are just getting zero help from the offense.

Do you think a team that’s quit wants any part in playing a triple option team? Georgia Tech’s been heating up and put up at least 38 points in 4 of their last 5 games.

Temple @ Houston -4.5

I love this Houston team. They’re 7-1 straight up, 5-3 ATS, and they put up points. Temple gave up 52 to UCF last week and unfortunately for them, Houston’s offense has been ripping defenses apart. They haven’t scored less than 41 points in a game this entire season. They are also coming off beating the hell out of a good South Florida team.

Temple is a good team but its tough having back to back road games against UCF and Houston. The Cougars are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in their games against the Owls.

LSU @ Arkansas +14

I realize this is a totally effed up play. If I hit it I’m a genius, and if I don’t I’ll look like an idiot. But scared money don’t make no money and this line is set at only 14 for a reason.

As a Tennessee fan, I’ve witnessed, many times, the soul crushing effect playing Alabama can have on a team. There’s something about what they do to you psychologically. Especially when you’re having a good year and then run into that. Coach O cracked a bit after the game, and totally ripped his players. Essentially saying they aren’t good enough and he’s going to have to go out and recruit better ones. Well, you can say that privately, but that’s not a message you want to send your team if you want their best effort the rest of the season.

Based off the statistics, LSU’s success makes no sense to me. They are average in just about every category. In fact, they’re in the bottom half of the SEC in every single major category except for scoring defense where they’re 5th. This game is a weird rivalry game, and this is Arkansas’s Super Bowl. It would make their season if they could win this game. They aren’t very good, but they’ve shown they can hang with people at times. They lost to A&M by only a touchdown and they’re coming off a bye.

Clemson -20 @ Boston College

Don’t talk yourself into taking Boston College. You’ll feel like an idiot when Clemson just does what they’ve been doing for over a month now. I know Boston College has put together a nice little season, but this is a different animal. Dabo sees what Saban’s up to, and he’s out to prove something.

Tasty Teasers

Teaser 1: WVU -6, Tennessee +12.5, Mississippi State +31

Teaser 2: UGA -8, Clemson -14

A-Rob’s Committee Vote

I’ve repeatedly been recommended by my fans far and wide to be added to the College Football Playoff Committee, and despite your numerous letters and phone calls to the Committee Chair Rob Mullens, it looks like my odds of joining anytime soon are grim. As you can imagine, the process involves a lot of politics and I’m just not the kind of guy that kisses ass. Nonetheless, that won’t stop me from supplying you, the people, with the correct order the top ten should be.

I’ve been saying this for a couple years now, but what Alabama is doing is not good for this sport. Bama fatigue exist, and if you’re a casual observer from the outside looking in, why would you want to watch a sport where the same damn team is at the top every year? You could say the Patriots do something similar in the NFL, but at least they make it interesting. The disgusting thing is this particular Bama team is making it more boring than ever.

Despite that, I do think Michigan and Clemson have legitimate chances to play them tough. I know that every look ahead line for the championship has Bama favored by almost two digits, but they are a tweaked knee from Tua and a competent opposing quarterback away from a competitive game. Bama’s secondary has some issues and Clemson’s talented receivers with Trevor Lawrence could expose that weakness. Michigan’s defense is good enough for them to have a chance if Shea Patterson has the game of his life.

If your a certified Bama hater, you’d like to see the top four end up like this instead of Notre Dame in that four spot. This scenario gives the two teams with the best chance to knock them off, both a crack at it. Although, this is November, and weird things happen in college football in November, so who knows how this all ends up.

Here’s how I would rank the top 10 at this point:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Georgia
  7. West Virginia
  8. Washington State
  9. Ohio State
  10. LSU

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamRobertson13

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