CFB Week 12 Picks + My Top Ten

Often imitated but never duplicated.

Its a tough task keeping up with us. Not only do I write riveting pieces week in and week out, the picks have been white hot. We literally haven’t had a losing performance since Week 2, and like championship teams, we are peaking at the right time. Last week we went 7-2-1 overall, with a 7-1-1 Saturday. Unlike a lot of the pretenders, my picks are documented for all to see. Speaking of accountability, don’t ever let me go against Boise State as an underdog on the blue turf ever again.

I’m not going to lie, being a man of the people doesn’t come without a price. The carnage we have inflicted on the books is starting to a have a cumulative effect. The stronger we get, the bigger the target on my back grows…

Tucker Carlson isn’t the only one that’s recently had an angry mob show up at his house. It seemed like every bookie within a 50 mile radius descended on my property late Saturday night. They all carried torches and I’m pretty sure a few were on horseback… They pleaded the Money Train be put to an end and even offered me a percentage of their future profits if I would oblige. When I told them I wasn’t interested in their money, they became enraged and left. I’m sure they will return, especially after we rip them yet again this week, which is why I’ve already made arrangements to lie low in an undisclosed location for a while.

I’m feeling contrarian this week. 6 out of 8 of the plays are against the line movement, I think we’re getting some good value on these.

Michigan State @ Nebraska +2.5

I realize that transitive properties don’t work in college football but… its hard not to compare both these teams recent performances against Ohio State. Michigan State is severely challenged offensively. They can’t seem to get anything going on that side of the ball, and their change at quarterback is not helping. Nebraska, on the other hand, has been able to put up points of recent. I like their freshman quarterback, and don’t look now, but the Huskers have won 3 out of their last 4, with the one loss being that close one against the Buckeyes.

I think a staple of most good 1st year coaches is getting at least one quality win they’re not suppose to get. Nebraska has won a couple conference games, but they haven’t won one against a more prominent member of the Big Ten. And while being only a 2.5 point dog, I still think this is considered a game many expect them to lose. This would be a good win for Scott Frost and I think he’s due for that.

Middle Tennessee State +16 @ Kentucky

Earlier in the year I preached that Kentucky was simply a mirage, and now that the fervor has died down, people can see this team for what it really is. Who in their right mind thinks UK should be laying 16 points to anybody right now?

I saw this team in Neyland Stadium last week, and I have to say their body language was no bueno. That team looked flat. Like the air had been taken out of their sails. Snell looks like he’s tired of carrying the load, and its not hard to stop a team when you realize they can’t throw downfield for anything.

Kentucky plays down to these group of five opponents all the time. They failed to cover the spread in their games against Murray State and Central Michigan earlier this season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if UK fans had to sweat this out a little in the 4th quarter.

Ohio State -14 @ Maryland

This Maryland program is a hot mess right now. I thought about betting against them last week coming off their coach getting fired, but I simply couldn’t bring myself to put money on Indiana.

Speaking of hot mess, this Ohio State program has been a spectacle this year. I don’t even want to get into all that’s gone on with them this past week. I can imagine Meyer’s headaches aren’t getting any better. That being said, this line keeps coming down and I don’t know why. With Michigan on the horizon, Ohio State needs to crank up the heat and they know it.

Ohio State has absolutely annihilated Maryland in recent years. The past two seasons they scored 62 on them in both games.

Syracuse +10.5 vs Notre Dame (Yankee Stadium)

If you’re hoping Notre Dame gets left out of the playoff, this is your last shot cause USC sure as hell ain’t beating them. And, to be honest, after looking at their schedule this is hands down the toughest game they’ll play aside from Michigan, and I’m here to tell you they certainly could lose this game.

Make no bones about it, this Syracuse team is legitimately good. With or without Trevor Lawrence, I still find it damn impressive they took Clemson down to the wire. And unlike last season when Cuse beat them in the Carrier Dome, this was in Death Valley.

Syracuse puts up a lot of points, they’re averaging 44.4 a game and they are an up tempo offense. Ian Book will have to be on his game to stay ahead of them and he’s coming off an injury to his ribs. I fully expect this game to be close, especially since its away from South Bend.

Missouri @ Tennessee +6

Times are changing on Rocky Top. I don’t like Pruitt. I love him. Taking a four win team and knocking off two Top 25 opponents is a good sign of things to come. At this point in the season, the Vols have come a long way, especially defensively.

Speaking of defensive improvement, Missouri put up 740 total yards of offense against Tennessee in 2016 and 659 last year. I expect things to go much differently Saturday. The Vols held UK to only 7 points last week and Charlotte to 3 the week before. I think Tennessee finds a way to pick Drew Lock off a couple times (getting Treyvon Flowers back in the secondary helps), Lock is hit or miss on how he plays, and Tennessee winning the turnover battle ends up being the difference. Jarrett Guarantono for all his faults, does take care of the ball.

Derek Dooley returns to Knoxville to grace the sideline once again, this time wearing Missouri gear, and that has to be bad mojo for the Tigers.

West Virginia -4.5 @ Oklahoma State

As long as Will ‘Steroid Arm’ Grier keeps covering spreads for us, I’m going to keep betting on WVU. After coming up big for Money Train passengers everywhere against Texas and TCU, I’m starting to get a soft spot for this team. There’s a part of me that would love to see what they could do in the playoff. However, they would most likely have to beat Oklahoma twice in a row, so I wouldn’t get your hopes up for that.

I’m sure the number is this short because of the way Oklahoma State played Texas and Oklahoma. However, people forget how awful they’ve looked the rest of the year. To me, I think this Cowboys team is past due to regress back to the mean. Plus, coming off that heartbreaking loss to the Sooners that they very well could have won, its tough to get right back up off the mat to face an opponent playing at the level of the Mountaineers.

Iowa State @ Texas -3

If you haven’t been paying attention to what Matt Campbell’s Cyclones have been doing, you should tune into this one. They are on a four game tear that includes an absolute beating of aforementioned West Virginia and a solid Texas Tech team. That being said, I’m going against them here cause they just aren’t as scary away from Ames, Iowa. Their starting running back, David Montgomery, is the bell cow of their offense and he’ll miss the first half for throwing a bunch in their previous game against Baylor.

This game should be close, and if any team in America is poised to play in a tight game, its this Longhorns squad. It feels like they’ve had games come down to the wire literally all season.

Cincinnati +7 @ UCF

The longest win streak in the nation. College Gameday coming to town for the first time. Finally getting some of the attention they believe they deserve. You know what all that equals?…. FADE ALERT.

Watch out for these Bearkitties, they’re 9-1 and do a lot of things well on both sides of the ball. UCF has relied heavily on their offense, but the defense has been suspect…

Tasty Teaser + Parlay

Teaser: Ohio State -8, Nebraska +8.5, Syracuse +16.5

Moneyline Dog Parlay: Nebraska (+115), Tennessee (+190), Cincinnati (+240)

10 dollars on that parlay would payout 201.99 and 5 dollars would pay 100.99

A-Rob’s Committee Vote
  • I have to say, no conference is more committed than the SEC on ensuring their number one team’s success. Last week the Tide were the only power 5 team to not be called for a single penalty. I mean that’s encroaching on WWE – wrastlin’ – fixed outcome type territory.
  • Notre Dame’s schedule is absolute garbage. Michigan is much better at this point in the season, but there’s simply no justifying putting the Wolverines in the 3rd spot considering the head to head result between the two. For the record, Notre Dame doesn’t deserve a playoff spot with no conference championship game.
  • At first glance it looks like I’m giving more credit to the Big 12 than the committee members, but really I’m just being objective. I have Oklahoma ahead of Georgia because a 3 point loss to Texas is more respectable to me than a 36-16 drumming by an LSU team that managed to lose to Florida. I have West Virginia higher as well, the loss to Iowa State in Ames isn’t as bad as some may think.
  • How anyone can put LSU in front of West Virginia and Washington State is beyond me.
  • I came around on UCF and gave them the 10th spot over LSU. 22 straight wins, that includes a New Years 6 win and convincing victory over an ACC division leader in Pitt earlier this year, makes me say what the hell, let em have that spot.
  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Georgia
  7. West Virginia
  8. Washington State
  9. Ohio State
  10. UCF

Follow me on Twitter: AdamRobertson13

 

 

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