CFB Week 13 Picks + My Top Ten

I’m not crying, you’re crying

Its unreal that this is the final week of the regular season. It seems like just yesterday I was sitting out by the pool, doing my preseason research with a cold brewski in hand. It never fails that the stretch from Labor Day to Thanksgiving feels like a blur… With this being our last weekend with a full slate of games, I’m going #AllOut like Dabo’s Clemson Tigers. Or is it AllIn? Either way, its on.

Speaking of tigers, I’d like to take a moment to give a shoutout to this week’s unofficial sponsor: Wild Tiger. Wild Tiger is an energy drink that’s concocted in Jordan. You can’t even get this stuff in the U.S., an associate of mine had it imported from the Middle East. I’ve heard rumors that suggest this drink kept our military kicking ass and taking names in Iraq all through the 2000s. I can vouch that its well worth ripping apart your esophagus. It really delivers on the sweatiness, jitters, and borderline unnerving anxiety that catapults you to get shit done. Seriously, if any of my readers hail from the Middle East with connections to the Wild Tiger brand, feel free to jump in my DMs, lets make this business partnership official.

Friendly reminder: Be sure to still check in weekly after this week concludes. Obviously I’m gambling all through the conference championships, bowl games, and NFL playoffs, so no worries, there are plenty more cash stacks headed our way.

“Don’t ever play yourself.” – DJ Khaled

Its no secret that we’re coming off a disappointing performance. We went 3-5 ATS in our first losing week since Week 2. I’ve gotten some backlash, but hey, that’s to be expected and I don’t blame you. Losing money is emotional and if it makes you feel better I lost that money too. And trust me, there’s literally nothing on this effing planet that is more important to me than delivering on the picks.

Yesterday I got in my own head. I was gung-ho on taking the Chiefs +3.5 all day, and at the last second I decided to fade myself and took the Rams. Afterward, I thought about the wise words of DJ Khaled listed above. Never again am I doing that. Confidence is key in this world and I’m getting my swag back right here, right now.

I love Week 13 in college football. There’s a fantastic slate as usual, and I don’t want to bury the lead, but I’m calling for a few streaks to end.

Mississippi State -11 @ Ole Miss (Thursday)

I actually spent some time living in Mississippi as a kid so I was able to witness this rivalry up close, and let me tell you, its pretty fierce. For the most part, my impression was Ole Miss was a bit uppity while Mississippi State had a more blue collar vibe.

Obviously we aren’t passing up the opportunity to get some action on Thanksgiving. At first glance, this felt like too many points. Last year Ole Miss was a 14 point dog and won outright in Starkville. But on second thought, its tough to side with the Rebels right now. They’re 0-7 ATS in conference play, and there’s no indication of that changing Thursday. Ole Miss statistically has one of the top offenses in the conference but Miss St’s defense is downright nasty and they should run all over Ole Miss’s shotty defense.

Nebraska @ Iowa -9.5 (Friday)

Nebraska got the big W last week in the snow, which was one of our covers. Now that they got a decent win under their belts, they head to Iowa where its tough as hell to get victories. Nebraska is 4-7 so even with a win, they wouldn’t be bowl eligible. That leads me to believe the extra motivation isn’t there, and its time to zag on them following the zig. Also, Nebraska is 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Hawkeyes.

Iowa went through a bit of a cold streak but they just broke out of it by beating the shit out of Illinois 63-0. Poor Illinois. How long must you be the punching bag of the Big10??

Virginia -3.5 @ Virginia Tech (Friday)

Special shout out to my grandad who’s a diehard UVA fan. As a middle schooler, I disappointed him greatly by donning a Virginia Tech hat for a couple years. Luckily, it was just a phase, brought on by my love for Marcus Vick of all people. I think I took the hat off after he was charged with getting 14 and 15 year old girls drunk and seducing them. What a great role model for young men. I’m hopeful that willing Virginia to a win here can somehow make amends with my grandad all these years later.

The Wahoos fanbase has suffered enough. They’ve beaten the Hokies once (2003) in the past 19 years and haven’t beaten them in Blacksburg since 1998. I’m a fan of what Bronco Mendenhall has done so far, his team is 7-4 (8-3 ATS) while Virginia Tech is 4-6 (3-7 ATS). I’ve heard some grumblings about Justin Fuente from Hokie fans, and I imagine those grumblings will become much louder and more sinister if the streak ends here.

Oklahoma @ West Virginia +1.5 (Friday)

Honestly, if you take the names off the jerseys, I think West Virginia would be favored by about 3. Morgantown at night + Will ‘Steroid Arm’ Grier and Dana Holgerson with nothing to lose after that loss + the opportunity to play spoiler + a chance at a Big 12 title = sign me the hell up. WVU is probably going to go for it on every single fourth down and that’s not good news for an Oklahoma defense that just gave up 40 to Kansas. K-A-N-S-A-S. 40.

West Virginia is a typical Big 12 team, but I still think their defense is at least alright. Oklahoma puts up points but this one is a bad scenario for them. The Sooners aren’t winning the Big12 every year, the conference is due for a mix up.

 Washington @ Washington State -2.5 (Friday)

Friday is a great night for football. This + the OU/WVU game will be fun. Recently, Washington has owned Washington State in this series but this is a tale of two totally different football teams right now. The Huskies are 2-9 ATS while Mike Leach has been god’s gift to gamblers with his team sitting at an incredible 10-1 ATS.

Minshew is coming off a seven touchdown performance against Arizona and if they win the Pac 12, I’m gonna be pissed off if him and his moustache aren’t invited to New York dammit. On the other side of the field is Jake Browning who, believe it or not, just became the winningest quarterback in Pac12 history (37 career wins). This is ironic, cause it seems like his broke ass can’t win a single big game. Seriously, every time I back him in a big spot he lets me down. I’m sure every single one of those 37 wins were against lesser opponents. I’m sending him off the right way by fading him in primetime once more for old times sake.

Florida -5.5 @ FSU

I swear if Florida effs this up for us, I’m finding Felipe ‘Pool Boy’ Franks on Instagram and leaving threatening comments.

Florida State currently sits at 5 wins, with the longest bowl streak in college football on the line. They also have owned the Gators the past five years. But my gosh, this FSU team is bad. Like really bad. Every fiber of my being wanted to pick them here but I just can’t do it. Ultimately, when I think about what Florida’s defensive line should be able to do to the Seminole’s offensive line, I legitimately fear for DeAndre Francois safety.

Georgia Tech +17 @ Georgia

Don’t look now, but Georgia Tech has ripped off 4 wins in a row and won 6 out of the last 7. I know I’m a broken record with this point, but Georgia is just not that physical defensively this year. Teams can run on them. That’s how LSU was able to whip them, by blooding them upfront. Say what you want, but this Georgia Tech running attack should concern Bulldog fans.

Serious question for you: Who is the best team UGA has beaten this year? Florida? Missouri? Kentucky???

There’s no doubt Fromm can sling the ball around (when he has time) and they have weapons offensively. But there are still a lot of question marks, even at this point in the season. I’d be interested to see what they do against a top level opponent.

Michigan – 4 @ Ohio State

If Michigan doesn’t win this one, they should stop calling it a rivalry cause the Wolverines won’t ever beat them if they can’t do it this year.

I get why the line is the way it is. Michigan has won once (2011) in the past 14 years and they haven’t won in Columbus since 2000. Streaks create real pressure and that weighs heavy on kids. People do forget these guys are 18-22 years old. But good heavens, if that Ohio State team isn’t due to get absolutely smashed then I don’t know what I’ve been looking at. Its like the Buckeyes don’t even know what they’re doing defensively. Greg Schiano should be ashamed of himself. They don’t even know how to take proper angles and tackle!! That’s either coaching or just plain lack of caring on the players part.

Perhaps that Ohio State team is just sick right now. That environment has been a circus this year and that could be having an effect. Michigan on the other hand looks like they’re on a mission. It feels like their time. Harbaugh has taken a lot of shit the past couple seasons but he’s had his team dialed in this year. Karan Higdon guaranteed a win, which I think is fitting considering he should be the one running wild on that sorry Buckeyes defense Saturday.

Tennessee +3.5 @ Vanderbilt

Would you guys expect anything else?

I swore I was done with the vols this year, but like a dog returning to his own vomit, I couldn’t resist one more round to end the season. Or perhaps not? With both these teams sitting at 5-6, this is a brawl for it all – a bowl game on the line. Tennessee has been the ultimate zig zag team all year. They don’t cover against WVU or Florida, then they cover against UGA and beat Auburn outright as a two touchdown plus dog, then they get hammered by Bama, follow it up with an outright win against a top 15 team in Kentucky, and then get boat raced by an average Missouri team. They’re 5-6 ATS and that means they’re due for a zig.

The day Tennessee loses three in a row to Vandy is the day I snap as a Vols fan. Like Kentucky winning in Neyland, I’ll believe Vandy can win three straight when I see it. After Vandy Candy’s win last year, they danced on Tennessee’s logo. After Tennessee wins this game, I expect full fledge line dancing. I want it choregraphed, with time and effort put into it after practice every day this week. Maybe they can get some of the Wild Horse Salon staff in Nashville to meet them at midfield at the conclusion of the game.

LSU @ Texas A&M -2

This line is rotten as hell.

I’ve had this game circled for a while, I’ve been dying to fade LSU and this is the perfect spot to do it. I’ve said it a few times, but it simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to me that LSU has been winning like they have. They are in the bottom half of the SEC in most statistical categories. I think Texas A&M’s stout run defense is a bad matchup for LSU. Like when they played Bama, if Burrow is forced to generate most of the offense, the Tigers are in trouble.

The Aggies have not faired well against LSU since they joined the SEC. They’re 1-7 straight up and ATS against them. However, I’m banking on that being more of Kevin Sumlin thing. They have finished seasons horribly in recent years. Don’t forget, Jimbo Fischer turned down LSU when Les Miles was fired. You know he doesn’t want to lose to them here.

Notre Dame @ USC +10.5

Love me or hate me, you have to admit I have brass balls.

The public is obviously all over Notre Dame, and the contrarian in me will never die. I admit, I’ve been wrong about Notre Dame. They’re a good team. But they still aren’t the same away from South Bend. Also, last week they were fortunate Syracuse’s quarterback got hurt off the bat.

Clay Helton has been hanging on to his job by a thread this year. At 5-6, and most likely missing a bowl game after this, his job is certainly in jeopardy. If his team doesn’t show something in this game, I think he’s screwed. If his players like him at all, they’ll play all out for him. At the end of the day, as bad as USC has been this year, they’re still capable of showing up and playing with just about anybody in the country due to their talent level. Just ask Washington State.

Utah State @ Boise State -2.5

When I said I was never going against Boise State on the blue turf again, I wasn’t kidding.

A-Rob’s Committee Vote

I’m shaking up my order a bit from last week. When you only have 12 games, they all count in my evaluation and there’s some teams that both hurt and helped themselves in my eyes. Rankings are often more of an art than an exact science. Its typically not cut and dry. My three main factors are:

  1. Who have you beaten (and how)
  2. Who have you lost to (and how)
  3. Eye test
  • Lol @ Ohio State. I still have them ranked ahead of any two loss teams cause at the end of the day they’re still winning games, but they’re firmly at the bottom of the one-loss club. That defense is sorry and you have to play defense if you want to be taken seriously.
  • Speaking of porous defenses, wtf Oklahoma. I had you at number 5 in my poll and you let Kansas hang 40 on you? KANSAS. You’re demoted.
  • I’m officially ready to start putting more respect on UCF’s name. This is another piece for another day, but its time for a playoff system that gives a team like this a shot. I found it hilarious how much Kirk Herbstreit was trying to conceal his desire for UCF to lose that game. But hey, he’s got to tote the company line for the big money conferences. Can we all sign a petition for UCF to replace Pitt in the ACC championship game? They did dub them 45-14 earlier this year…
  • Notre Dame is damn good and keeps taking care of business, but they’re effing this all up. The fact that they’ll pull a Bama and get to sit out a week while everyone else plays conference championship games is a straight up unfair advantage. They need to do what they did in basketball and join the ACC.
  • Washington State is BALLING. How the hell did they drop that game to USC? Can you imagine the conversation right now if they hadn’t? How does the committee have LSU ahead of this team???
  • We’re about to find out a lot about UGA these next two weeks.
  • I gave LSU the 10 spot over WVU simply cause they’ve beaten a team in the top 10
  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan
  5. Georgia
  6. Washington State
  7. UCF
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Ohio State
  10. LSU

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamRobertson13

 

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