“It’s a secret society, all we ask is trust.” – Jay-Z
If you’re a regular reader and didn’t load up on the conference championship picks, I honestly feel bad for you. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink. After a shaky Week 13, the trolls fired up their keyboards and openly jeered my conference championship plays. But honestly, just like the start to the season, there’s a part of me that finds satisfaction that the fair weather riders were thrown off the scent while the faithful raked in the cash from a 6-1 weekend. After Stonewall Jackson was a letdown during the Battles of the Seven Days, Robert E Lee entrusted him to strike the initial blow at John Pope, eventually leading to a rout at Second Manassas.
In all seriousness, I’m damn proud of what we do here. 78-59-4 (56.93%) on the season is respectable as hell. We have fun and I’m picking games that everyone actually wants to watch. And not to mention, what we do is free. I literally have heard of some of these big expensive tout services calling half their clientele and telling them one side to take, and then calling the other half and telling them to take the other team. They’re hedging their bets and they don’t give a shit about you. They only care about their profits. Here, we’re in this thing together.
A-Rob befriends an oracle
True story: I stumbled across a prophet of sorts, and we spoke for over three hours. A lot of what he had to say was beneficial, and really invigorated my soul. However, he gave me a peculiar message as he departed. “Curb your ambition….”
Weigh every spirit, test every thought.
Not to reject his claim outright, but let me purpose this to you. If you bought a ticket back in the day to see Richard Pryor, you wanted to see the coked out, loose cannon version. Arnold Schwarzenegger didn’t conquer Hollywood, politics, and Lou Ferrigno by getting a full eight hours every night. And who the hell is going to take us to Mars before natural disasters wipe out mankind if Elon Musk stops being a work-a-holic??
After a week of no sweet college football gambling action, I’m here for every bit of this Group of Five bowl slate. These are tough to predict, but scared money don’t make no money. Let’s get this cash stack.
Tulane -3.5 vs UL-Lafayette
I have got to say, I think Tulane’s new helmet logo with the Green Wave ready to throw fisticas are sickkkk. The first time I watched them this season was the opener, and they took Wake Forest to OT in a great game. They struggled afterwards, but turned their season around when an LSU transfer QB stepped in and won four out of the last five games as the starter.
ULL is on a hot bowl streak, going 4-1 in their last five bowl games. However, this is the first bowl game this particular head coach has been at the helm for. There’s no teacher like experience, and its tough figuring out how to bend your post season practice schedule, deal with distractions, and etc.
The Ragin Cajuns have struggled to stop the run this year, so it can’t bode well for them that Tulane runs an option offense. ULL made it to the Sun Belt championship, but that can be misleading, these teams aren’t far off from each other in overall record. The AAC is the superior conference, they’re the closest to Power Five level, and I’ll take the middling team from that league. Plus you know I like to lay 3.5s.
North Texas vs Utah State -7.5
After losing their head coach Matt Wells to Texas Tech, the Aggie players have gone through an emotional week. From what I hear, the move had such an effect that the coach was meeting with players individually to explain himself before he left. But now that he’s gone, I need these guys to stop acting like sad little bitches, get their shit together, and cover this spread.
Utah State has been one of the top Group of Five teams all season. In their only losses, they took Michigan State down to the wire and lost to Boise State on the blue turf where almost nobody ever wins. The strength of their team is their prolific offense, and it looks like their offensive coordinator was nice enough to stick around to coach the bowl game, so they’ll still have their play caller in place.
North Texas has had a decent year themselves. Their quarterback, Mason Fine, won C-USA Offensive Player of the Year, and their defense is fairly stout as well. They drummed Arkansas earlier this season, but honestly, is that really saying much? Despite the coaching drama and North Texas being a solid opponent, the line is still over a touchdown, and that says a lot to me. If Utah State comes out motivated they should take care of business.
Arizona State vs Fresno State -4.5
Sharp play alert: the tickets are split about 50/50 on this one but 81% of the money is on Fresno State.
Gah I’m chalky as hell this week… But you have to love it when things come full circle. I started the year off fading Herm Edwards and it didn’t pay off, but now’s our chance to get that money back from him.
I will say my main concern is this game is in Las Vegas. For a team like Arizona State, which is one of the biggest party schools in the nation, I can’t imagine they’ll bat much of an eye considering they’re stepped in debauchery on a weekly basis. Now if your reading this and you go to Fresno State, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but I imagine Vegas has a hell of a lot more to offer than those Bulldog players are accustomed to. I’m counting on Jeff Tedford to keep his squad in check. I hope he runs a tight ship.
Eastern Michigan +2.5 vs Georgia Southern
Congratulations to these two schools for getting to go to everyone’s favorite bowl destination: Montgomery, Alabama.
Part of me feels bad for going against Georgia Southern, they paid off big for me when I took them against Appalachian State earlier this year. But as dominant as they were in that one, they had some luck from the Mountaineer quarterback exiting the game due to injury. Since then, they’ve been all over the map, and they can’t be trusted. You never know which version of them is liable to show up.
Speaking of consistency, that’s what I see in Eastern Michigan right now. After a rough start to the season, they rattled off a 5-1 stretch to finish out strong. Their strength appears to be their defense, which I like in a matchup against an option team that they have extra time to prepare for.
Appalachian State -6.5 vs MTSU
If I don’t go against Appy State in a bowl game now, I’m not sure I ever will. Unlike Utah State’s situation, where their head coach leaves but they have their play caller, Satterfield bolted for Louisville and left behind their defensive line coach at the helm….
Satterfield had been a rock there for years, and I’m not sure how App State will handle this game without him. Still, you can’t deny this team has been dominate aside from a mid season hiccup in Savannah, GA. When I saw the line dip below 7, I hurried to grab it.
The Blue Raiders are a good team, but if I go against the Mountaineers and lose I’ll feel like an idiot.
Utah State -1.5, App State -0.5
A-Rob’s Final Committee Vote
For the record, I think the committee got the top four right given their situation. The reason I have Oklahoma and Ohio State ahead of Notre Dame is because its a crock of shit they get to avoid a potentially tough matchup in a conference championship. But under the current system, with no concrete criteria, I understand its tough to turn down an undefeated Power Five School. Here’s my final vote:
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame
I’ve told you before, that once the blue bloods start getting left out with legitmate gripes (Ohio State does have one, UGA and UCF have solid arguments too for that matter), that the movement will be under way. I think if you award all the Power Five conference champs a spot, put in two at larges, and throw in the top Group of Five team, you won’t compromise the regular season in a severe way. In fact, in a lot of ways I think the regular season would be enhanced. And those that want to keep it at four are just straight up haters of fun. Imagine getting to watch this slate of games on a Saturday in Mid – December…
Based off the current CFP rankings (all times Eastern):
- 12:00 PM: 6. Ohio State @ 3. Notre Dame
- 3:30 PM: 5. Georgia @ 4. Oklahoma
- 6:00 PM: 8. UCF @ 2. Clemson
- 8:30 PM: 9. Washington @ 1. Alabama
Winner of Wash/Bama plays winner of UGA/OU, winner of UCF/Clemson plays winner of OSU/ND (semifinals and championship on neutral sites).
Follow me on Twitter: @AdamRobertson13