Bowl Season Part 2 + Early Signing Day Takes

Tout Session

I’m some type of psycho. Like for real. I’m going through life with blinders on, fully immersed in what I’m doing, and I sure as hell hope all my passengers are benefiting off the amount of work I’m putting into this.

We went 5-0 last week. 100% return. Un-effing-defeated. We went 5-1 in the conference championship picks so we’re on a 10-1 run. Where do we go from here? Can it get better? That’s the question heavy on my mind. Our season total now sits at 83-59-4 (58.45%). I did the math, and if we were to somehow pull off a 4-0 this week, then we would be at an almost unheard of 60 percent on the year.

A-Rob’s Christmas Challenge: For those of you struggling to figure out what to give the gambling degenerate in your life, look no further. Write on a piece of paper “Unlimited subscription to A-Rob’s stone-cold-cash-money gambling picks at arobmoneytrain.com”, seal it in an envelope with said degenerate’s name on it, and place it under the tree or in his or her stocking. It won’t cost you anything, and you’re gifting them the gift that keeps on giving: perpetual cash stacks.

After this week we’re getting into the meat of things with the big bowl games and then onto the NFL Playoffs (went 9-2 last year) and I want to get as many people on board with what we’re doing as possible. You sharing the site is greatly appreciated.

Flawed Reasoning

I’ve heard a lot of experts throw out team motivation as a key edge their looking for in these bowl games, and to be honest, I think that line of thinking has proved to be a bit overrated. So far this bowl season, favorites are undefeated straight up and only one of them failed to cover the spread. These teams, especially in these early bowls, are all motivated. For one, these group of five teams don’t get the limelight often, and getting these primetime slots where they’re one of the only games on is a big proponent for them being dialed on. Also these kids are all obsessed with winning rings and, believe it or not, they do get rings made if they win these games.

As hot as we are, I really want to keep this momentum going, so instead of picking every game on the board, I narrowed this week’s slate down to the four games I like the most.

Marshall vs USF +3 (Thursday)

I’m not going to lie, its tough going against a coach that’s name is freaking Doc Holliday. Especially when he’s been a straight up bad ass coaching in bowl games for Marshall (5-0 SU and ATS). Val Kilmer would be proud.

USF is also on a five game losing streak. Bull’s fans are not happy with Charlie Strong right now… Speaking of how overrated he turned out to be as a coach, its only fitting his quarterback is former Alabama 5-star transfer Blake Barnett. He’s been banged up this season, and has been dealing with both a shoulder and ankle injury.

However, South Florida did start the year 7-0, and even reached the Top 25 in Week 7 before it all came crashing down on them. They’ve been banged up and no doubt have benefited from a few weeks off to get healthy for this matchup. Given the five game skid, does it not tell you anything that this line is only 3? USF plays in the AAC which is a borderline power five league at this point so they’re competition has been stout.

This game is being played in USF’s stadium so this is essentially a home dog.

FIU vs Toledo -4.5 (Friday)

Bahamas Bowl baby!!! How pissed off are the other kids playing in Montgomery, Mobile, and Birmingham?

Don’t you need a passport to travel to the Bahamas? Who’s in charge of making sure all the players get that taken care of? That sounds like a secretarial nightmare.

Typically this game is a high scoring bonanza. I have officially retired from totals, but with both these teams putting up points all year, and both teams having suspect defenses, I considered making a play on the over. That was until I saw the weather report…

Average wind speeds on gameday are projected to be over 20 mph.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OVER 45 MPH.

The total opened at 66.5 and has come all the way down to 59.5, and I’ve already seen 59’s in a couple places. If you want to make a play on the under, you better hurry up and grab it now, I fully expect it to keep coming down as more bettors come in. I’m still staying away from it. Despite the weather, its hard to overstate how bad these defenses are. Toledo ranks 104th in pass defense. FIU ranks 100th in run defense. Which brings me to the logic of my Toledo pick…

Toledo averages 223.6 yards on the ground a game. In these conditions passing the ball obviously could be an issue and backing the team that runs the ball well seems like the way to go.

Memphis -3.5 vs Wake Forest

You know what they say about public dogs? They got fleas. 60 percent of the tickets are coming in on Wake Forest and the line hasn’t even budged.

I heard a proverb from someone in the industry this week, that was something to the effect of “teams are never as good as their last win and never as bad as their last loss”. While that’s not exactly true to a T, there’s a lot of merit in what he’s trying to say. This was one of the biggest mental hurdles I had to climb when I first started betting regularly. Its imperative to avoid getting caught up in recency bias. Wake Forest just absolutely smashed Duke 59-7. But you also have to keep in mind just the week before they got beat pretty thouroghly by an average Pitt team.

No doubt one of the reasons the public is all over the Demon Deacons is Darrell Henderson is sitting this game out. Regardless, I’ll take the Memphis kids over the private schoolers.

By the way, if you’re feeling bad about a particular pick you’ve made, I want you to know I took Wake Forest and the points this year when they played Clemson 😐

Buffalo -1.5 vs Troy

Is their anything more ‘Alabama’ than the Dollar General Bowl?

This is a hell of a matchup. These are two titans ATS.

Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in their last 8, and 13-3 straight up in their last 16. Troy is 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16, and are 9-3 straight up this season. Buffalo should have been the MAC champion but absolutely fell on their face in the second half against NIU and ended up losing by a point. Troy is probably the second best team in the Sun Belt but they ran into Appy State on their side of the conference.

After their starting quarterback went down, Troy has been having to win games with their defense down the stretch. Buffalo puts up points like a true MAC team and they have a legit qb under center thats actually getting some NFL looks. This line opened at 3 and has moved all the way down to 1.5, and I’m assuming its because Troy is known as the power five killers (LSU last year, Nebraska this year).

What really put me over the edge is realizing Buffalo’s head coach was the guy that wrecked havoc on Division III at Wisconsin-Whitewater. I refuse to pick against this guy.

Tasty Teaser

Had to go off my board and add Houston for a leg of my teaser. Have to make sure I’m crossing key numbers where I can.

USF +9, Houston +10.5, Buffalo +4.5

Early Signing Period Takes

  • The early signing period is bad for parody and the rich are getting richer.
  • The big boys get their classes filled early and are then able to focus their main attention on the next recruiting cycle while everyone else tries to clean up their class in February.
  • The big schools get an opportunity to poach the smaller school’s recruits after the majority of prospects come off the board in December. The saying “2 at 10 and 10 at 2” applies.
  • If you’re in a coaching transition you are absolutely screwed.
  • Bama and UGA are going to be the most talented teams in the NCAA for years to come. But watch out for Texas A&M, Jimbo isn’t messing around and apparently the boosters aren’t either (oil money baby, wink wink).
  • As far as the Justin Fields thing goes, I’ve said it all along but I will never understand why a quarterback (that could play anywhere) would choose to go to a school that has a rockstar quarterback only one year in front of them. What the hell did you think was going to happen? Kirby Smart is partially to blame. No doubt he promised him playing time. Ultimately, trying to get Justin Fields on the field may have caused UGA a championship with the worst 4th and long decision that I can remember.

Follow me on Twitter: @AdamRobertson13

 

 

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